AEK Larnaca vs Karmiotissa preview
In the match between AEK Larnaca and Karmiotissa, the 1X2 probabilities show AEK Larnaca at 77% and Karmiotissa at 8%. The most likely scoreline is 2-0, which occurs at a rate of 13%. AEK Larnaca's expected goals stand at 2.37, while Karmiotissa's is significantly lower at 0.68.
While AEK Larnaca has a strong recent form of D-W-D-W-W-L, Karmiotissa has struggled with W-L-L-L-D-D. There is a 59% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance for both teams to score. However, if Karmiotissa can improve their scoring, it could challenge the expected outcome.
AEK Larnaca vs Karmiotissa: model vs market
| Source | AEK Larnaca | Draw | Karmiotissa |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 74% | 18% | 8% |
| Market | 79% | 14% | 7% |
| Published | 77% | 15% | 7% |
| Edge | -1% | +1% | 0% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.37 vs 0.68.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.21, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -6.2% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
AEK Larnaca vs Karmiotissa odds movement
Median bookmaker price on AEK Larnaca, 8 snapshots since 2026-11-03.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| AEK Larnaca | 1.20 | 1.18 | -0.02 |
| Draw | 6.05 | 6.50 | +0.45 |
| Karmiotissa | 12.00 | 13.00 | +1.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
AEK Larnaca and Karmiotissa expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.05
- Attack rating (AEK Larnaca / Karmiotissa)
- 1.24 / 0.66
- Defence rating (AEK Larnaca / Karmiotissa)
- 0.85 / 1.30
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
AEK Larnaca vs Karmiotissa score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: AEK Larnaca goals. Columns: Karmiotissa goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
AEK Larnaca vs Karmiotissa goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 46%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for AEK Larnaca vs Karmiotissa
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | AEK Larnaca | 77% | 1.29 |
| Draw | 15% | 6.62 | |
| Karmiotissa | 7% | 13.52 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59% | 1.70 |
| Under 2.5 | 41% | 2.43 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 46% | 2.19 |
| No | 54% | 1.84 | |
| Double chance | 1X (AEK Larnaca or draw) | 93% | 1.08 |
| 12 (either side) | 85% | 1.18 | |
| X2 (draw or Karmiotissa) | 23% | 4.44 | |
| Handicap -1 | AEK Larnaca win by 2+ | 52% | 1.93 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
AEK Larnaca and Karmiotissa recent form
AEK Larnaca
3W 2D 1L
Karmiotissa
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
AEK Larnaca at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-1
- Win rate
- 75%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 0.50
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 5 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game on the road against 1.5 at home.
Karmiotissa away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 1 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
- They average 1.0 goals per game on the road against 0.4 at home.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 8 matches.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: AEK Larnaca at home only, Karmiotissa away only.
Expected lineups
AEK Larnaca lineup · 3-4-1-2
- 92 Alberto Paleari
- 4 Enric Saborit
- 15 Hrvoje Miličević
- 22 Godswill Ekpolo
- 17 Kostas Pileas
- 6 Ivan Chavdarov Pankov
- 23 Sven Köhler
- 14 Amor Layouni
- 10 Yerson Chacón
- 33 Nicolas Andereggen
- 11 Riad Bajić
Bench: Petros Ioannou, Mike Van der Hoorn, Brian Oliván, Gus Ledes, Youssef Amyn, Đorđe Ivanović, Atanas Trică, Chambos Kyriakou, Kerim Mrabti, Giorgos Naoum, Zacharias Adoni, Andreas Paraskevas
Karmiotissa lineup · 4-4-2
- 1 Nikos Giannakopoulos
- 33 Julio César
- 8 Curtis Yebli
- 44 Jad Smaira
- 22 Rubén García
- 42 Nassim Ouammou
- 10 Alastair Reynolds
- 20 Marios Kokkinoftas
- 21 Petros Psychas
- 17 Theodosis Kyprou
- 9 Patrick Luan
Bench: Christos Wheeler, Mateja Bajunovic, Iakovos Savvidis, Andreas Violaris, Alexandre Kutateladze, Marios Theocharous, Jael Pawaridihadjo, Artemis Spanos, Themistoklis Themistokleous, Angelos Argyriou
AEK Larnaca vs Karmiotissa head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: AEK Larnaca 8 · draws 2 · Karmiotissa 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-22 | Karmiotissa | 0-3 | AEK Larnaca | 1. Division |
| 2024-11-25 | AEK Larnaca | 2-0 | Karmiotissa | 1. Division |
| 2024-01-26 | Karmiotissa | 1-3 | AEK Larnaca | 1. Division |
| 2023-10-21 | AEK Larnaca | 5-0 | Karmiotissa | 1. Division |
| 2023-02-04 | Karmiotissa | 1-3 | AEK Larnaca | 1. Division |
| 2022-10-30 | AEK Larnaca | 4-0 | Karmiotissa | 1. Division |
| 2020-12-23 | AEK Larnaca | 1-0 | Karmiotissa | 1. Division |
| 2020-09-13 | Karmiotissa | 0-0 | AEK Larnaca | 1. Division |
| 2020-07-29 | AEK Larnaca | 4-4 | Karmiotissa | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2020-01-22 | Karmiotissa | 0-1 | AEK Larnaca | Cup |
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
- Nea Salamis vs Omonia Aradippou 2026-11-06
- AEL vs Krasava Ypsonas — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Olympiakos vs Apollon Limassol — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Anorthosis v Omonia Nicosia — match page 2026-11-08
- Apoel Nicosia vs Aris 2026-11-08
- Pafos v Omonia 29is Maiou — match page 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- AEK Larnaca, previous: Krasava Ypsonas vs AEK Larnaca: odds and pick
- Karmiotissa, previous: Karmiotissa – Olympiakos, 2026-10-30