Omonia Nicosia vs AEL preview
Omonia Nicosia faces AEL with a 51% probability of winning, while AEL has a 23% chance. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which aligns with the expected goals of 1.82 for Omonia Nicosia and 1.17 for AEL. The model suggests a strong likelihood of Over 2.5 goals at 57% and both teams to score at 59%.
However, the confidence grade is C, indicating uncertainty in the outcome. Omonia Nicosia's recent form shows 4 wins in the last 5 matches, while AEL has also been strong with 4 wins but lost their last match. This could affect the predicted scoreline and overall match dynamics.
Omonia Nicosia vs AEL: model vs market
| Source | Omonia Nicosia | Draw | AEL |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 56% | 23% | 20% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 56% | 23% | 20% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.01 vs 1.14.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Omonia Nicosia and AEL expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.15
- Attack rating (Omonia Nicosia / AEL)
- 1.29 / 1.09
- Defence rating (Omonia Nicosia / AEL)
- 0.85 / 1.06
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Omonia Nicosia vs AEL score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Omonia Nicosia goals. Columns: AEL goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Omonia Nicosia vs AEL goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 60%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Omonia Nicosia vs AEL
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Omonia Nicosia | 56% | 1.77 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.28 | |
| AEL | 20% | 4.96 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61% | 1.64 |
| Under 2.5 | 39% | 2.56 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60% | 1.67 |
| No | 40% | 2.50 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Omonia Nicosia or draw) | 80% | 1.25 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.30 | |
| X2 (draw or AEL) | 44% | 2.30 | |
| Handicap -1 | Omonia Nicosia win by 2+ | 34% | 2.91 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Omonia Nicosia and AEL recent form
Omonia Nicosia
4W 1D 1L
AEL
4W 0D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Omonia Nicosia at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-3-0
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 0.75
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.
AEL away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-1
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 3
- They have won 5 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Omonia Nicosia at home only, AEL away only.
Omonia Nicosia vs AEL head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Omonia Nicosia 2 · draws 0 · AEL 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-09 | AEL | 0-2 | Omonia Nicosia | Cyprus 1. Division |
| 2025-09-22 | Omonia Nicosia | 5-0 | AEL | Cyprus 1. Division |
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
- Karmiotissa v Olympiakos — match page 2026-10-30
- Krasava Ypsonas vs AEK Larnaca 2026-10-31
- Apollon Limassol v Pafos — match page 2026-10-31
- Aris vs Anorthosis 2026-11-01
- Omonia 29is Maiou v Nea Salamis — match page 2026-11-01
- Omonia Aradippou vs Apoel Nicosia — team news & stats 2026-11-01
Before and after this match
- Omonia Nicosia, previous: AEK Larnaca vs Omonia Nicosia: odds and pick
- Omonia Nicosia, next: NEC Nijmegen vs Omonia Nicosia prediction
- AEL, previous: AEL v Aris analysis