Baník Ostrava vs Plzen preview
In the fixture between Baník Ostrava and Plzen, the 1X2 probabilities show Baník Ostrava at 33%, a draw at 27%, and Plzen at 40%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, which reflects a 9% chance according to our model.
Baník Ostrava's recent form is poor with 1 draw and 5 losses, while Plzen has 2 wins and 4 losses in their last 6 matches. The expected goals are 1.41 for Baník Ostrava and 1.57 for Plzen, indicating a competitive match. With 57% for Over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, the potential for a high-scoring game exists, but Baník Ostrava's struggle to win could affect the outcome.
Baník Ostrava vs Plzen: model vs market
| Source | Baník Ostrava | Draw | Plzen |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 35% | 27% | 38% |
| Market | 27% | 26% | 47% |
| Published | 29% | 26% | 45% |
| Edge | +2% | 0% | -2% |
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.02, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -9.9% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Baník Ostrava vs Plzen odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Plzen, 3 snapshots since 2026-10-26.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Baník Ostrava | 3.40 | 3.40 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.64 | 3.61 | -0.03 |
| Plzen | 2.00 | 2.00 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Baník Ostrava and Plzen expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.96
- Attack rating (Baník Ostrava / Plzen)
- 0.80 / 1.22
- Defence rating (Baník Ostrava / Plzen)
- 1.01 / 1.26
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Baník Ostrava vs Plzen score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Baník Ostrava goals. Columns: Plzen goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Baník Ostrava vs Plzen goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 61%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Baník Ostrava vs Plzen
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Baník Ostrava | 29% | 3.41 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.83 | |
| Plzen | 45% | 2.24 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57% | 1.76 |
| Under 2.5 | 43% | 2.31 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61% | 1.65 |
| No | 39% | 2.55 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Baník Ostrava or draw) | 55% | 1.80 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| X2 (draw or Plzen) | 71% | 1.42 | |
| Handicap -1 | Plzen win by 2+ | 19% | 5.22 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Baník Ostrava and Plzen recent form
Baník Ostrava
0W 2D 4L
Plzen
2W 0D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Baník Ostrava at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-2
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 0.60
- Goals against / match
- 1.20
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 5
- They have won 3 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 11 matches.
Plzen away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-1
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 2.40
- Goals against / match
- 1.80
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 4 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- They average 2.4 goals per game on the road against 1.8 at home.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Baník Ostrava at home only, Plzen away only.
Baník Ostrava vs Plzen head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Baník Ostrava 0 · draws 0 · Plzen 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | Baník Ostrava | 0-1 | Plzen | Czech Liga |
| 2025-10-26 | Plzen | 2-0 | Baník Ostrava | Czech Liga |
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
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- Slovácko vs Teplice — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Pardubice vs Slovan Liberec 2026-10-31
- Artis v Zlin — match page 2026-10-31
- Sigma Olomouc vs Zbrojovka Brno — team news & stats 2026-10-31
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Before and after this match
- Baník Ostrava, previous: Slovan Liberec v Baník Ostrava analysis
- Plzen, previous: Plzen vs Pardubice: odds and pick
- Plzen, next: Lillestrom vs Plzen: odds and pick