Mlada Boleslav vs Hradec Králové preview
Mlada Boleslav has a 53% chance to win against Hradec Králové, who has an 18% chance. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 14% probability. Mlada Boleslav's expected goals are 1.51, while Hradec Králové's are only 0.79.
However, the match could be affected by recent form. Mlada Boleslav has two wins in their last six matches, while Hradec Králové has only one win in their last six. The probabilities for Over 2.5 goals sit at 41%, and both teams to score is at 44%. With a confidence grade of C, the outcome remains uncertain.
Mlada Boleslav vs Hradec Králové: model vs market
| Source | Mlada Boleslav | Draw | Hradec Králové |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 53% | 28% | 19% |
| Market | 42% | 27% | 31% |
| Published | 45% | 27% | 28% |
| Edge | +3% | 0% | -3% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.51 vs 0.80.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Mlada Boleslav below our published probability: +2.8 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.32, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +3.3% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Mlada Boleslav vs Hradec Králové odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Mlada Boleslav, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-26.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mlada Boleslav | 2.24 | 2.24 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.44 | 3.44 | +0.00 |
| Hradec Králové | 3.00 | 3.00 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Mlada Boleslav and Hradec Králové expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.31
- Attack rating (Mlada Boleslav / Hradec Králové)
- 0.99 / 0.72
- Defence rating (Mlada Boleslav / Hradec Králové)
- 0.89 / 1.07
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Mlada Boleslav vs Hradec Králové score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Mlada Boleslav goals. Columns: Hradec Králové goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Mlada Boleslav vs Hradec Králové goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 44%
- No goals (0–0)
- 11%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Mlada Boleslav vs Hradec Králové
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Mlada Boleslav | 45% | 2.24 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.64 | |
| Hradec Králové | 28% | 3.57 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 41% | 2.46 |
| Under 2.5 | 59% | 1.68 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 44% | 2.27 |
| No | 56% | 1.78 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Mlada Boleslav or draw) | 72% | 1.39 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.38 | |
| X2 (draw or Hradec Králové) | 55% | 1.80 | |
| Handicap -1 | Mlada Boleslav win by 2+ | 28% | 3.55 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Mlada Boleslav and Hradec Králové recent form
Mlada Boleslav
2W 1D 3L
Hradec Králové
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Mlada Boleslav at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 2.20
- Goals against / match
- 0.20
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 5
- They have won 6 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 11 matches.
Hradec Králové away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-2
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 0.40
- Goals against / match
- 0.80
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 4 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.4 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 11 matches.
- 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Mlada Boleslav at home only, Hradec Králové away only.
Mlada Boleslav vs Hradec Králové head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Mlada Boleslav 1 · draws 1 · Hradec Králové 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-13 | Hradec Králové | 1-1 | Mlada Boleslav | Czech Liga |
| 2025-08-16 | Mlada Boleslav | 3-2 | Hradec Králové | Czech Liga |
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Before and after this match
- Mlada Boleslav, previous: Slavia Praha v Mlada Boleslav analysis
- Hradec Králové, previous: Hradec Králové vs FK Jablonec prediction