Karviná vs Dukla Praha preview
In the FNL fixture between Karviná and Dukla Praha, the 1X2 probabilities show Karviná at 50%, Dukla Praha at 28%, and a draw at 22%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with an 8% chance. Over 2.5 goals is projected at 75%, while both teams to score stands at 73%.
Karviná's recent form includes 3 wins and 2 losses, while Dukla Praha has 3 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss in their last 6 matches. The expected goals are 2.25 for Karviná and 1.68 for Dukla Praha. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating some uncertainty in the predictions. A draw or a lower-scoring game could challenge the expected outcomes.
Karviná vs Dukla Praha: model vs market
| Source | Karviná | Draw | Dukla Praha |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 50% | 23% | 27% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 50% | 23% | 27% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.12 vs 1.54.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Karviná and Dukla Praha expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.65
- Attack rating (Karviná / Dukla Praha)
- 1.25 / 1.21
- Defence rating (Karviná / Dukla Praha)
- 1.05 / 1.09
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Karviná vs Dukla Praha score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Karviná goals. Columns: Dukla Praha goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Karviná vs Dukla Praha goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 70%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Karviná vs Dukla Praha
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Karviná | 50% | 1.99 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.43 | |
| Dukla Praha | 27% | 3.69 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 71% | 1.42 |
| Under 2.5 | 29% | 3.41 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 70% | 1.43 |
| No | 30% | 3.32 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Karviná or draw) | 73% | 1.37 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.29 | |
| X2 (draw or Dukla Praha) | 50% | 2.01 | |
| Handicap -1 | Karviná win by 2+ | 30% | 3.29 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Karviná and Dukla Praha recent form
Karviná
4W 0D 2L
Dukla Praha
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Karviná at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 2.25
- Goals against / match
- 0.50
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 4
- They have won 6 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Dukla Praha away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-1
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.75
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 5 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.7 on the road.
- 46% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Karviná at home only, Dukla Praha away only.
Karviná vs Dukla Praha head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Karviná 2 · draws 0 · Dukla Praha 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-18 | Dukla Praha | 1-2 | Karviná | Czech Liga |
| 2025-07-19 | Karviná | 2-0 | Dukla Praha | Czech Liga |
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- Baník Ostrava II vs Slavia Praha II 2026-10-16
- Opava v Vysočina Jihlava — match page 2026-10-16
- Příbram vs Třinec — team news & stats 2026-10-16
- Prostějov vs Ústí nad Labem 2026-10-16
- Vlašim v Hanácká — match page 2026-10-16
Before and after this match
- Karviná, previous: Táborsko vs Karviná: odds and pick
- Dukla Praha, previous: Dukla Praha v Baník Ostrava II analysis