Aalborg vs Hobro preview
Aalborg faces Hobro with a 48% chance of winning, while Hobro has a 27% probability. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which occurs at a rate of 10%. Aalborg's expected goals are 1.92, compared to Hobro's 1.28, indicating a stronger offensive output from Aalborg.
However, there are factors that could lead to a different outcome. Aalborg's recent form shows 3 draws and 2 losses in their last 5 matches, while Hobro has not won in their last 6, with 5 draws and 1 loss. Both teams to score has a probability of 63%, and Over 2.5 goals stands at 62%, suggesting potential for a higher-scoring match.
Aalborg vs Hobro: model vs market
| Source | Aalborg | Draw | Hobro |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 52% | 24% | 24% |
| Market | 53% | 25% | 23% |
| Published | 53% | 24% | 23% |
| Edge | 0% | 0% | 0% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.92 vs 1.26.
- Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.78, recorded — the top price across the 6 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -6.4% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Aalborg vs Hobro odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Aalborg, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-24.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aalborg | 1.98 | 1.75 | -0.23 |
| Draw | 3.55 | 3.77 | +0.22 |
| Hobro | 3.38 | 4.08 | +0.70 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Aalborg and Hobro expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.18
- Attack rating (Aalborg / Hobro)
- 0.97 / 0.90
- Defence rating (Aalborg / Hobro)
- 1.07 / 1.35
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Aalborg vs Hobro score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Aalborg goals. Columns: Hobro goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Aalborg vs Hobro goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 62%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Aalborg vs Hobro
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Aalborg | 53% | 1.90 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.09 | |
| Hobro | 23% | 4.35 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62% | 1.62 |
| Under 2.5 | 38% | 2.61 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62% | 1.61 |
| No | 38% | 2.64 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Aalborg or draw) | 77% | 1.30 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.32 | |
| X2 (draw or Hobro) | 47% | 2.11 | |
| Handicap -1 | Aalborg win by 2+ | 30% | 3.30 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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Aalborg and Hobro recent form
Aalborg
1W 3D 2L
Hobro
0W 3D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Aalborg at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-3-2
- Win rate
- 17%
- Goals for / match
- 0.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.17
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 6
- They have won 3 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 0.7 at home.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 11 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Hobro away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-3
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.40
- Goals against / match
- 2.60
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 4 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Aalborg at home only, Hobro away only.
Aalborg vs Hobro head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Aalborg 1 · draws 2 · Hobro 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-21 | Hobro | 2-1 | Aalborg | Denmark 1. Division |
| 2026-05-01 | Aalborg | 1-1 | Hobro | Denmark 1. Division |
| 2026-04-10 | Hobro | 0-1 | Aalborg | Denmark 1. Division |
| 2026-03-14 | Hobro | 1-0 | Aalborg | Denmark 1. Division |
| 2025-08-01 | Aalborg | 1-1 | Hobro | Denmark 1. Division |
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
- Kolding IF vs HB Koge 2026-10-31
- FC Fredericia vs AB Copenhagen — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Esbjerg v Hvidovre — match page 2026-10-31
- Vendsyssel FF vs Vejle — team news & stats 2026-11-01
- Aarhus Fremad v Hillerød — match page 2026-11-01
Before and after this match
- Aalborg, previous: Hillerød v Aalborg analysis
- Hobro, previous: Hobro vs Vendsyssel FF: odds and pick