Hobro vs Esbjerg preview
In the fixture between Hobro and Esbjerg, the 1X2 probabilities show Esbjerg at 51%, while Hobro is at 25%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with a 9% chance. Both teams to score and Over 2.5 goals are both at 65%, indicating a strong likelihood of an active match.
Hobro's recent form is D-D-L-D-L-D, while Esbjerg has L-W-D-D-L-W. The expected goals are 1.37 for Hobro and 2.00 for Esbjerg, which suggests that Hobro may struggle to keep up with Esbjerg's scoring potential. However, Hobro has a favorable head-to-head record with 2 wins and 1 draw in their last 3 meetings, which could influence the outcome.
Hobro vs Esbjerg: model vs market
| Source | Hobro | Draw | Esbjerg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 26% | 24% | 50% |
| Market | 37% | 27% | 36% |
| Published | 34% | 26% | 40% |
| Edge | -3% | -1% | +3% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.89 vs 1.32.
- Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Esbjerg below our published probability: +3.3 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.60, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +3.4% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Hobro vs Esbjerg odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Esbjerg, 12 snapshots since 2026-11-01.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hobro | 2.51 | 2.50 | -0.00 |
| Draw | 3.45 | 3.45 | +0.00 |
| Esbjerg | 2.51 | 2.53 | +0.02 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Hobro and Esbjerg expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.21
- Attack rating (Hobro / Esbjerg)
- 0.89 / 1.10
- Defence rating (Hobro / Esbjerg)
- 1.31 / 1.02
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Hobro vs Esbjerg score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Hobro goals. Columns: Esbjerg goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Hobro vs Esbjerg goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 63%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Hobro vs Esbjerg
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Hobro | 34% | 2.94 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.82 | |
| Esbjerg | 40% | 2.51 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62% | 1.61 |
| Under 2.5 | 38% | 2.64 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63% | 1.58 |
| No | 37% | 2.72 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Hobro or draw) | 60% | 1.66 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| X2 (draw or Esbjerg) | 66% | 1.52 | |
| Handicap -1 | Esbjerg win by 2+ | 29% | 3.48 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Hobro and Esbjerg recent form
Hobro
0W 4D 2L
Esbjerg
1W 3D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Hobro at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-3-2
- Win rate
- 29%
- Goals for / match
- 1.14
- Goals against / match
- 1.29
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 7
- They have won 4 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
Esbjerg away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-4
- Win rate
- 17%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 6
- They have won 2 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 13 matches.
- 56% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Hobro at home only, Esbjerg away only.
Hobro vs Esbjerg head-to-head
Last 9 meetings: Hobro 2 · draws 2 · Esbjerg 5.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-15 | Esbjerg | 1-2 | Hobro | Denmark 1. Division |
| 2025-10-16 | Esbjerg | 1-1 | Hobro | Denmark 1. Division |
| 2025-08-24 | Hobro | 2-0 | Esbjerg | Denmark 1. Division |
| 2024-11-03 | Esbjerg | 3-2 | Hobro | 1. Division |
| 2024-07-26 | Hobro | 3-6 | Esbjerg | 1. Division |
| 2022-05-22 | Hobro | 1-2 | Esbjerg | 1. Division |
| 2022-03-31 | Esbjerg | 2-2 | Hobro | 1. Division |
| 2021-10-29 | Hobro | 2-6 | Esbjerg | 1. Division |
| 2021-09-10 | Esbjerg | 2-1 | Hobro | 1. Division |
Other Matchday 14 fixtures
- Vejle vs FC Fredericia — team news & stats 2026-11-06
- AB Copenhagen v Vendsyssel FF — match page 2026-11-06
- HB Koge vs Aalborg — team news & stats 2026-11-06
- Hillerød v Kolding IF — match page 2026-11-07
- Hvidovre vs Aarhus Fremad 2026-11-09
Before and after this match
- Hobro, previous: Aalborg vs Hobro prediction
- Esbjerg, previous: Esbjerg – Hvidovre, 2026-10-31