Aarhus Fremad vs Hillerød preview
Aarhus Fremad faces Hillerød with a 42% chance of winning according to our model, while Hillerød has a 30% chance. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, predicted at 12%. However, the expected goals show Aarhus Fremad at 0.88 and Hillerød at 1.03, suggesting a tighter match than the probabilities indicate.
Both teams to score stands at 39%, and Over 2.5 goals is at just 30%. Recent form shows Aarhus Fremad with three draws and two losses, while Hillerød has two wins and a draw in their last six matches. The head-to-head record is balanced with each team winning once and one draw in the last three encounters.
Aarhus Fremad vs Hillerød: model vs market
| Source | Aarhus Fremad | Draw | Hillerød |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 29% | 34% | 37% |
| Market | 46% | 27% | 27% |
| Published | 42% | 29% | 30% |
| Edge | -4% | +2% | +2% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.07, recorded — the top price across the 6 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -13.6% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Aarhus Fremad vs Hillerød odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Aarhus Fremad, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-26.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aarhus Fremad | 2.00 | 2.00 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.48 | 3.48 | +0.00 |
| Hillerød | 3.39 | 3.39 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Aarhus Fremad and Hillerød expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 1.91
- Attack rating (Aarhus Fremad / Hillerød)
- 0.66 / 1.15
- Defence rating (Aarhus Fremad / Hillerød)
- 0.69 / 0.91
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Aarhus Fremad vs Hillerød score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Aarhus Fremad goals. Columns: Hillerød goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Aarhus Fremad vs Hillerød goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 39%
- No goals (0–0)
- 16%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Aarhus Fremad vs Hillerød
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Aarhus Fremad | 42% | 2.39 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.51 | |
| Hillerød | 30% | 3.36 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 30% | 3.34 |
| Under 2.5 | 70% | 1.43 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 39% | 2.57 |
| No | 61% | 1.64 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Aarhus Fremad or draw) | 70% | 1.42 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.40 | |
| X2 (draw or Hillerød) | 58% | 1.72 | |
| Handicap -1 | Aarhus Fremad win by 2+ | 10% | 9.80 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Aarhus Fremad and Hillerød recent form
Aarhus Fremad
0W 4D 2L
Hillerød
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Aarhus Fremad at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-2
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.17
- Goals against / match
- 1.17
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 6
- They have won 3 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 11 matches.
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Hillerød away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-4
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.67
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 6
- They have won 2 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 11 matches.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Aarhus Fremad at home only, Hillerød away only.
Aarhus Fremad vs Hillerød head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Aarhus Fremad 1 · draws 1 · Hillerød 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-15 | Hillerød | 1-1 | Aarhus Fremad | Denmark 1. Division |
| 2026-03-21 | Hillerød | 1-0 | Aarhus Fremad | Denmark 1. Division |
| 2025-08-09 | Aarhus Fremad | 3-1 | Hillerød | Denmark 1. Division |
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
- Aalborg vs Hobro 2026-10-30
- Kolding IF vs HB Koge 2026-10-31
- FC Fredericia vs AB Copenhagen — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Esbjerg v Hvidovre — match page 2026-10-31
- Vendsyssel FF vs Vejle — team news & stats 2026-11-01
Before and after this match
- Aarhus Fremad, previous: Aarhus Fremad vs FC Copenhagen prediction
- Hillerød, previous: Hillerød v Aalborg analysis