Esbjerg vs FC Fredericia preview
In the upcoming match between Esbjerg and FC Fredericia, the 1X2 probabilities show FC Fredericia at 46%, while Esbjerg sits at 28%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-2, with a 9% chance. Both teams have shown some scoring ability, as indicated by the expected goals of 1.28 for Esbjerg and 1.70 for FC Fredericia.
The recent form suggests a competitive encounter, with Esbjerg's last six matches yielding 2 draws and 1 win, while FC Fredericia has 2 wins and 1 draw in their last six. However, Esbjerg has not won any of the last 10 meetings against FC Fredericia, which could influence the outcome. The probabilities for Over 2.5 goals stand at 57%, and both teams to score is at 60%, indicating potential for an open game.
Esbjerg vs FC Fredericia: model vs market
| Source | Esbjerg | Draw | FC Fredericia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 28% | 26% | 46% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 28% | 26% | 46% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.70 vs 1.28.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Esbjerg and FC Fredericia expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.98
- Attack rating (Esbjerg / FC Fredericia)
- 1.27 / 1.14
- Defence rating (Esbjerg / FC Fredericia)
- 1.12 / 0.69
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Esbjerg vs FC Fredericia score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Esbjerg goals. Columns: FC Fredericia goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Esbjerg vs FC Fredericia goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 60%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Esbjerg vs FC Fredericia
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Esbjerg | 28% | 3.58 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.84 | |
| FC Fredericia | 46% | 2.17 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57% | 1.75 |
| Under 2.5 | 43% | 2.33 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60% | 1.66 |
| No | 40% | 2.51 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Esbjerg or draw) | 54% | 1.85 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| X2 (draw or FC Fredericia) | 72% | 1.39 | |
| Handicap -1 | FC Fredericia win by 2+ | 25% | 3.99 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Esbjerg and FC Fredericia recent form
Esbjerg
1W 3D 2L
FC Fredericia
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Esbjerg at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-3-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.40
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 1 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
- 60% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
FC Fredericia away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-1
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.40
- Goals against / match
- 0.60
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 5
- They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 10 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Esbjerg at home only, FC Fredericia away only.
Esbjerg vs FC Fredericia head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Esbjerg 0 · draws 2 · FC Fredericia 8.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | FC Fredericia | 1-0 | Esbjerg | Denmark 1. Division |
| 2026-07-18 | Esbjerg | 0-1 | FC Fredericia | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2025-04-27 | FC Fredericia | 1-1 | Esbjerg | 1. Division |
| 2025-04-22 | Esbjerg | 0-2 | FC Fredericia | 1. Division |
| 2024-10-19 | Esbjerg | 0-3 | FC Fredericia | 1. Division |
| 2024-08-11 | FC Fredericia | 4-0 | Esbjerg | 1. Division |
| 2024-07-13 | Esbjerg | 2-2 | FC Fredericia | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2021-10-23 | Esbjerg | 1-2 | FC Fredericia | 1. Division |
| 2021-08-17 | FC Fredericia | 1-0 | Esbjerg | 1. Division |
| 2021-05-10 | Esbjerg | 1-2 | FC Fredericia | 1. Division |
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
- Hobro v Vendsyssel FF — match page 2026-10-23
- Hvidovre vs HB Koge 2026-10-23
- Hillerød v Aalborg — match page 2026-10-24
- AB Copenhagen vs Kolding IF — team news & stats 2026-10-24
Before and after this match
- Esbjerg, previous: Aarhus Fremad vs Esbjerg prediction
- Esbjerg, next: Esbjerg vs FC Nordsjaelland: odds and pick
- FC Fredericia, previous: FC Fredericia vs Hobro prediction