Hillerød vs Aalborg preview
Hillerød faces Aalborg with a 52% probability of winning, while Aalborg has a 24% chance. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 10% prediction from our model. Both teams to score and Over 2.5 goals are both predicted at 62%.
Hillerød's expected goals stand at 1.91 compared to Aalborg's 1.26. Recent form shows Hillerød with a record of L-D-W-L-D-W, while Aalborg has L-D-D-D-W-D. The head-to-head record in the last 3 matches shows Hillerød has 0 wins, 2 draws, and Aalborg has 1 win. A draw or a low-scoring game could challenge the predictions.
Hillerød vs Aalborg: model vs market
| Source | Hillerød | Draw | Aalborg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 52% | 24% | 24% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 52% | 24% | 24% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.91 vs 1.26.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Hillerød and Aalborg expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.18
- Attack rating (Hillerød / Aalborg)
- 1.22 / 0.97
- Defence rating (Hillerød / Aalborg)
- 0.97 / 1.08
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Hillerød vs Aalborg score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Hillerød goals. Columns: Aalborg goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Hillerød vs Aalborg goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 62%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Hillerød vs Aalborg
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Hillerød | 52% | 1.94 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.12 | |
| Aalborg | 24% | 4.15 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62% | 1.63 |
| Under 2.5 | 38% | 2.60 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62% | 1.61 |
| No | 38% | 2.64 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Hillerød or draw) | 76% | 1.32 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.32 | |
| X2 (draw or Aalborg) | 48% | 2.07 | |
| Handicap -1 | Hillerød win by 2+ | 30% | 3.31 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Hillerød and Aalborg recent form
Hillerød
2W 2D 2L
Aalborg
1W 4D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Hillerød at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-2
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.40
- Goals against / match
- 1.40
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 2 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Aalborg away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-1
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.60
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 0.8 at home.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Hillerød at home only, Aalborg away only.
Hillerød vs Aalborg head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Hillerød 0 · draws 2 · Aalborg 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | Aalborg | 1-0 | Hillerød | Denmark 1. Division |
| 2026-02-27 | Aalborg | 3-3 | Hillerød | Denmark 1. Division |
| 2025-07-26 | Hillerød | 2-2 | Aalborg | Denmark 1. Division |
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
- Hobro v Vendsyssel FF — match page 2026-10-23
- Hvidovre vs HB Koge 2026-10-23
- Esbjerg vs FC Fredericia 2026-10-24
- AB Copenhagen vs Kolding IF — team news & stats 2026-10-24
Before and after this match
- Hillerød, previous: Hvidovre v Hillerød analysis
- Aalborg, previous: Aalborg vs Vejle: odds and pick