Cambridge United vs Plymouth preview
Cambridge United face Plymouth with a 45% probability of winning compared to 27% for both a draw and a Plymouth victory. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which has a 9% chance of occurring. Cambridge's expected goals stand at 1.58, while Plymouth's is lower at 1.18, indicating Cambridge's slight edge in offensive potential.
However, the confidence grade is C, suggesting uncertainty in the outcome. While the model predicts Over 2.5 goals at 52% and both teams to score at 56%, factors like recent form could influence the match. Cambridge United has a mixed record with three draws in their last six matches, while Plymouth has shown inconsistency with four wins in their last six.
Cambridge United vs Plymouth: model vs market
| Source | Cambridge United | Draw | Plymouth |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 53% | 25% | 22% |
| Market | 38% | 26% | 36% |
| Published | 42% | 26% | 32% |
| Edge | +15% | -1% | -14% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.85 vs 1.13.
- The market prices Cambridge United below the model: +14.9 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.46, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.
Cambridge United vs Plymouth odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Cambridge United, 4 snapshots since 2026-10-20.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cambridge United | 2.52 | 2.42 | -0.10 |
| Draw | 3.49 | 3.58 | +0.09 |
| Plymouth | 2.54 | 2.60 | +0.06 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Cambridge United and Plymouth expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.98
- Attack rating (Cambridge United / Plymouth)
- 1.11 / 1.08
- Defence rating (Cambridge United / Plymouth)
- 0.88 / 1.12
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Cambridge United vs Plymouth score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Cambridge United goals. Columns: Plymouth goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Cambridge United vs Plymouth goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 58%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Cambridge United vs Plymouth
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cambridge United | 42% | 2.38 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.89 | |
| Plymouth | 32% | 3.10 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57% | 1.75 |
| Under 2.5 | 43% | 2.33 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58% | 1.72 |
| No | 42% | 2.38 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Cambridge United or draw) | 68% | 1.48 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| X2 (draw or Plymouth) | 58% | 1.73 | |
| Handicap -1 | Cambridge United win by 2+ | 31% | 3.23 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Cambridge United and Plymouth recent form
Cambridge United
3W 3D 0L
Plymouth
3W 0D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Cambridge United at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-2-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 6
- They have won 5 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Plymouth away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-2
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.67
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 6
- They have won 6 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 1.3 at home.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 11 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 60% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Cambridge United at home only, Plymouth away only.
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
- Reading vs Barnsley — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Burton Albion vs Leyton Orient 2026-10-24
- AFC Wimbledon v Wycombe — match page 2026-10-24
- Oxford United vs Bradford — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Doncaster vs Sheffield Wednesday 2026-10-24
- Blackpool v Mansfield Town — match page 2026-10-24
- Stevenage vs Milton Keynes Dons — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Notts County v Stockport County — match page 2026-10-24
Before and after this match
- Cambridge United, previous: Cambridge United vs Wycombe: odds and pick
- Cambridge United, next: Sheffield Wednesday – Cambridge United, 2026-10-27
- Plymouth, previous: Stevenage v Plymouth analysis
- Plymouth, next: Plymouth vs Alvechurch: odds and pick