Grenoble vs Boulogne Prediction & Betting Tips 16/10/2026

Grenoble vs Boulogne preview

In the Ligue 2 fixture between Grenoble and Boulogne, the 1X2 probabilities show Grenoble and Boulogne both at 34%, with a draw at 31%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-0, occurring 15% of the time.

Grenoble's expected goals stand at 1.01, while Boulogne's are lower at 0.79. The likelihood of Over 2.5 goals is only 27%, and both teams to score is at 36%. Recent form reveals Grenoble with 2 wins in their last 6 matches, while Boulogne has not won in their last 6, drawing 5 times. This could impact the match outcome if Boulogne finds a way to break their scoring drought.

Grenoble vs Boulogne: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Grenoble	Draw	Boulogne
Model	38%	35%	26%
Market	33%	30%	37%
Published	34%	31%	34%
Edge	+5%	+5%	-11%

Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
The market prices Grenoble below the model: +5.3 percentage points of edge.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.92, recorded 2026-10-10 — the top price across the 6 books we record, each at its own last update.

Grenoble and Boulogne expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.01Grenoble

0.79Boulogne

Total expected goals: 1.80
Attack rating (Grenoble / Boulogne): 0.85 / 0.60
Defence rating (Grenoble / Boulogne): 1.08 / 0.90

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Grenoble vs Boulogne score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 17.9% 11.8% 5.2% 1.4% 0.3% 1 15.4% 14.5% 5.2% 1.4% 0.3% 2 8.4% 6.7% 2.6% 0.7% 0.2% 3 2.8% 2.2% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 4+ 0.9% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%

Rows: Grenoble goals. Columns: Boulogne goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Grenoble vs Boulogne goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 82%

Over 1.5 55%

Over 2.5 27%

Over 3.5 11%

Both teams to score: 36%
No goals (0–0): 18%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Grenoble vs Boulogne

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Grenoble	34%	2.91
	Draw	31%	3.20
	Boulogne	34%	2.91
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	27%	3.72
	Under 2.5	73%	1.37
Both teams to score	Yes	36%	2.78
	No	64%	1.56
Double chance	1X (Grenoble or draw)	66%	1.52
	12 (either side)	69%	1.45
	X2 (draw or Boulogne)	66%	1.52
Handicap -1	Grenoble win by 2+	15%	6.50
	Push (exactly one goal)	23%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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Grenoble and Boulogne recent form

Grenoble 2W 1D 3L

Boulogne 0W 5D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Grenoble at home

Record (W-D-L): 0-2-1
Win rate: 0%
Goals for / match: 0.67
Goals against / match: 1.00
Clean sheets: 1 of 3

They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
They average 1.5 goals per game on the road against 0.7 at home.
They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Boulogne away

Record (W-D-L): 0-3-1
Win rate: 0%
Goals for / match: 0.25
Goals against / match: 0.50
Clean sheets: 2 of 4

They have won 0 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.4 goals per match.
They average 0.8 goals per game at home against 0.0 on the road.
They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
They have failed to score in 4 of 7 matches.
53% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Grenoble at home only, Boulogne away only.

Grenoble vs Boulogne head-to-head

Last 2 meetings: Grenoble 0 · draws 1 · Boulogne 1.

0% 50% 50%

GrenobleDrawsBoulogne

Previous meetings
Date	Home	Score	Away	Competition
2026-02-27	Grenoble	0-0	Boulogne	Ligue 2
2025-11-21	Boulogne	3-1	Grenoble	Ligue 2

Other Matchday 9 fixtures

Before and after this match

Grenoble, previous: Montpellier v Grenoble analysis
Boulogne, previous: Sochaux vs Boulogne prediction

Prediction snapshot Grenoble to win Predicted score 1 – 0 C Bet on Grenoble