Guingamp vs PAU preview
In the Ligue 2 fixture between Guingamp and PAU, the 1X2 probabilities show Guingamp at 42% to win, while PAU has a 31% chance. The most likely scoreline predicted is 2-1 in favor of Guingamp, which has an 8% probability. Both teams to score stands at 58%, and there is a 54% chance of Over 2.5 goals.
Recent form indicates Guingamp has struggled, with L-L-W-D-D-L results, while PAU has a better record of W-W-L-D-D-L. The expected goals are 1.33 for Guingamp and 1.51 for PAU, suggesting a close match. However, the confidence grade is C, meaning there is uncertainty in the predictions, and unexpected outcomes are possible.
Guingamp vs PAU: model vs market
| Source | Guingamp | Draw | PAU |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 32% | 27% | 40% |
| Market | 45% | 26% | 28% |
| Published | 42% | 27% | 31% |
| Edge | -13% | +1% | +12% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.10, recorded — the top price across the 6 books we record, each at its own last update.
Guingamp and PAU expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.84
- Attack rating (Guingamp / PAU)
- 0.86 / 1.02
- Defence rating (Guingamp / PAU)
- 1.22 / 1.17
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Guingamp vs PAU score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Guingamp goals. Columns: PAU goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Guingamp vs PAU goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 58%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Guingamp vs PAU
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Guingamp | 42% | 2.37 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.77 | |
| PAU | 31% | 3.19 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54% | 1.85 |
| Under 2.5 | 46% | 2.17 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58% | 1.71 |
| No | 42% | 2.41 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Guingamp or draw) | 69% | 1.46 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.36 | |
| X2 (draw or PAU) | 58% | 1.73 | |
| Handicap -1 | Guingamp win by 2+ | 15% | 6.75 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Guingamp and PAU recent form
Guingamp
1W 2D 3L
PAU
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Guingamp at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.75
- Goals against / match
- 1.75
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
PAU away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-1
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Guingamp at home only, PAU away only.
Guingamp vs PAU head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Guingamp 0 · draws 1 · PAU 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-17 | PAU | 2-1 | Guingamp | Ligue 2 |
| 2025-11-08 | Guingamp | 2-2 | PAU | Ligue 2 |
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
- Reims v Dijon — match page 2026-10-16
- Grenoble vs Boulogne — team news & stats 2026-10-16
- Laval vs Clermont Foot 2026-10-16
- Annecy v Nancy — match page 2026-10-16
Before and after this match
- Guingamp, previous: Nancy vs Guingamp: odds and pick
- PAU, previous: PAU – Laval, 2026-10-09