PAU vs Laval: model vs market
| Source | PAU | Draw | Laval |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 40% | 29% | 31% |
| Market | 46% | 28% | 27% |
| Published | 44% | 28% | 28% |
| Edge | -1% | 0% | +1% |
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
PAU vs Laval odds movement
Median bookmaker price on PAU, 14 snapshots since 2026-10-03.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| PAU | 2.05 | 2.04 | -0.00 |
| Draw | 3.35 | 3.40 | +0.05 |
| Laval | 3.40 | 3.50 | +0.10 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
PAU and Laval expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.61
- Attack rating (PAU / Laval)
- 0.87 / 0.90
- Defence rating (PAU / Laval)
- 1.10 / 1.22
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
PAU vs Laval score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: PAU goals. Columns: Laval goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
PAU vs Laval goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 54%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for PAU vs Laval
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | PAU | 44% | 2.26 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.60 | |
| Laval | 28% | 3.59 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 49% | 2.06 |
| Under 2.5 | 51% | 1.94 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54% | 1.85 |
| No | 46% | 2.18 | |
| Double chance | 1X (PAU or draw) | 72% | 1.39 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.39 | |
| X2 (draw or Laval) | 56% | 1.80 | |
| Handicap -1 | PAU win by 2+ | 19% | 5.13 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
PAU and Laval recent form
PAU
2W 2D 2L
Laval
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
PAU at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-2
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 0.75
- Goals against / match
- 0.75
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
Laval away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 2.33
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: PAU at home only, Laval away only.
Expected lineups
PAU lineup · 5-3-2
- 1 B. Maubleu
- 97 A. Abdallah
- 88 A. Bamba
- 23 A. Briançon
- 29 G. Paquiez
- 2 T. Pouilly
- 19 T. Saettel
- 21 J. Benet
- 6 C. Fall
- 9 B. Leye
- 7 H. Benali
Bench: L. Rajot, S. Basse, B. Brahimi, J. Sebas, R. Baheng, L. Gadegbeku, E. Salles, M. Tourraine, Abdoulaye Mbaye
Laval lineup · 4-3-1-2
- 1 M. Hautbois
- 22 J. Gaudin
- 18 A. Lô
- 24 S. Bane
- 23 E. Mouton
- 6 S. Sanna
- 31 M. Houdayer
- 20 E. Clavreul
- 28 A. Kanté
Bench: W. Bianda, J. Maggiotti, C. Gourichy, T. Dago, C. Mandouki, M. Sidibe, S. Mellier, A. Moussaoui, L. Droyaux
PAU vs Laval head-to-head
Last 9 meetings: PAU 5 · draws 2 · Laval 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-30 | Laval | 0-1 | PAU | Ligue 2 |
| 2025-09-23 | PAU | 1-0 | Laval | Ligue 2 |
| 2025-01-31 | PAU | 1-1 | Laval | Ligue 2 |
| 2024-09-27 | Laval | 3-1 | PAU | Ligue 2 |
| 2024-04-20 | PAU | 3-0 | Laval | Ligue 2 |
| 2023-12-16 | Laval | 1-1 | PAU | Ligue 2 |
| 2023-02-18 | PAU | 0-1 | Laval | Ligue 2 |
| 2022-09-10 | Laval | 0-1 | PAU | Ligue 2 |
| 2019-10-18 | Laval | 0-1 | PAU | Ligue 3 |
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
- Montpellier vs Grenoble 2026-10-09
- Nancy v Guingamp — match page 2026-10-09
- Sochaux vs Boulogne — team news & stats 2026-10-09
- Dunkerque v Annecy — match page 2026-10-09
- Nantes vs Reims — team news & stats 2026-10-10
- Clermont Foot vs RED Star FC 93 2026-10-10
- Saint-Etienne v Rodez — match page 2026-10-10
- Dijon vs Metz — team news & stats 2026-10-12
Before and after this match
- PAU, next: Guingamp vs PAU: odds and pick
- Laval, next: Laval v Clermont Foot analysis