Saint-Etienne vs Rodez: model vs market
| Source | Saint-Etienne | Draw | Rodez |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 64% | 18% | 19% |
| Market | 67% | 19% | 14% |
| Published | 66% | 19% | 15% |
| Edge | -3% | -2% | +5% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.87 vs 1.57.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.44, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
Saint-Etienne vs Rodez odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Saint-Etienne, 8 snapshots since 2026-10-03.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Saint-Etienne | 1.38 | 1.38 | -0.00 |
| Draw | 4.83 | 4.81 | -0.02 |
| Rodez | 6.65 | 6.65 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Saint-Etienne and Rodez expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.44
- Attack rating (Saint-Etienne / Rodez)
- 1.57 / 1.33
- Defence rating (Saint-Etienne / Rodez)
- 0.97 / 1.39
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Saint-Etienne vs Rodez score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Saint-Etienne goals. Columns: Rodez goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Saint-Etienne vs Rodez goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 75%
- No goals (0–0)
- 2%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Saint-Etienne vs Rodez
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Saint-Etienne | 66% | 1.51 |
| Draw | 19% | 5.32 | |
| Rodez | 15% | 6.65 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 82% | 1.22 |
| Under 2.5 | 18% | 5.54 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 75% | 1.33 |
| No | 25% | 4.04 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Saint-Etienne or draw) | 85% | 1.18 |
| 12 (either side) | 81% | 1.23 | |
| X2 (draw or Rodez) | 34% | 2.96 | |
| Handicap -1 | Saint-Etienne win by 2+ | 45% | 2.22 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Saint-Etienne and Rodez recent form
Saint-Etienne
4W 1D 1L
Rodez
1W 1D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Saint-Etienne at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 3.33
- Goals against / match
- 0.67
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 5 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.8 goals per match.
- They average 3.3 goals per game at home against 2.3 on the road.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
Rodez away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-2
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.67
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
League matches this season before kick-off: Saint-Etienne at home only, Rodez away only.
Saint-Etienne vs Rodez head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Saint-Etienne 1 · draws 1 · Rodez 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-15 | Saint-Etienne | 0-0 | Rodez | Ligue 2 |
| 2026-05-02 | Rodez | 2-1 | Saint-Etienne | Ligue 2 |
| 2025-08-16 | Saint-Etienne | 4-0 | Rodez | Ligue 2 |
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