Updated

Ligue 2 · Matchday 8

Saint-Etienne vs Rodez

· Stade Geoffroy-Guichard, Saint Etienne· Referee Pierre Gaillouste

Full time2 – 0

Alin prediction was Saint-Etienne to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 1

8% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Saint-EtienneDrawRodez

Saint-Etienne vs Rodez: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceSaint-EtienneDrawRodez
Model64%18%18%
Market69%18%13%
Published68%18%14%
Edge-1%0%+1%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.88 vs 1.57.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Saint-Etienne vs Rodez odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Saint-Etienne, 16 snapshots since 2026-10-03.

Opened 1.38Now 1.35 -0.03
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Saint-Etienne1.381.35-0.03
Draw4.835.20+0.37
Rodez6.657.45+0.80

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Saint-Etienne and Rodez expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.88Saint-Etienne
1.57Rodez
Total expected goals
4.45
Attack rating (Saint-Etienne / Rodez)
1.57 / 1.33
Defence rating (Saint-Etienne / Rodez)
0.97 / 1.39

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Saint-Etienne vs Rodez score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 1.7% 1.3% 1.4% 0.8% 0.4% 1 2.8% 5.8% 4.2% 2.2% 1.2% 2 4.9% 7.6% 6.0% 3.1% 1.7% 3 4.7% 7.3% 5.7% 3.0% 1.7% 4+ 6.8% 10.6% 8.3% 4.4% 2.4%

Rows: Saint-Etienne goals. Columns: Rodez goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Saint-Etienne vs Rodez goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 98%
Over 1.5 94%
Over 2.5 82%
Over 3.5 65%
Both teams to score
75%
No goals (0–0)
2%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Saint-Etienne vs Rodez

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Saint-Etienne68%1.47
Draw18%5.59
Rodez14%7.12
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.582%1.22
Under 2.518%5.56
Both teams to scoreYes75%1.33
No25%4.04
Double chance1X (Saint-Etienne or draw)86%1.16
12 (either side)82%1.22
X2 (draw or Rodez)32%3.13
Handicap -1Saint-Etienne win by 2+45%2.22
Push (exactly one goal)19%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Saint-Etienne and Rodez recent form

Saint-Etienne 4W 1D 1L
Rodez 1W 1D 4L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Saint-Etienne at home

Record (W-D-L)
3-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
3.33
Goals against / match
0.67
Clean sheets
1 of 3
  • They have won 5 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.7 goals per match.
  • They average 3.3 goals per game at home against 2.2 on the road.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.

Rodez away

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-2
Win rate
33%
Goals for / match
2.00
Goals against / match
2.67
Clean sheets
0 of 3
  • They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.

League matches this season before kick-off: Saint-Etienne at home only, Rodez away only.

Expected lineups

Saint-Etienne lineup · 4-4-2

  1. 30 G. Larsonneur
  2. 11 B. Old
  3. 18 S. Nair
  4. 13 João Ferreira
  5. 23 K. Pedro
  6. 8 T. Ballo
  7. 14 Á. Csongvai
  8. 6 M. Bernauer
  9. 20 A. Boakye
  10. 10 J. Breum
  11. 7 I. Cardona

Bench: Mamour Ndiaye, T. Svetlin, J. Duffus, N. El Jamali, Adam Baallal, N. Kasia Nkondo, L. Lavallée, E. Dhaoui, T. Teillol

Rodez lineup · 5-3-2

  1. 1 Q. Braat
  2. 17 L. Vungele Vangi
  3. 3 R. Lipinski
  4. 4 M. Magnin
  5. 24 L. Quenabio
  6. 28 S. Luyambula Biwa
  7. 29 Antonin Cartillier
  8. 6 J. Mendes
  9. 10 M. Saka
  10. 9 N. Nsingi
  11. 7 K. Nagera

Bench: M. Sylla, D. Pavlović, M. Touho, E. Jean-Lambert, R. Ponti, K. Nsona, O. Joly, M. Essimi Ateba, E. Crombez

Saint-Etienne vs Rodez head-to-head

Last 9 meetings: Saint-Etienne 2 · draws 4 · Rodez 3.

Saint-EtienneDrawsRodez
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-05-15Saint-Etienne0-0RodezLigue 2
2026-05-02Rodez2-1Saint-EtienneLigue 2
2025-08-16Saint-Etienne4-0RodezLigue 2
2024-05-24Saint-Etienne2-0RodezLigue 2
2024-05-10Saint-Etienne1-1RodezLigue 2
2023-08-12Rodez2-1Saint-EtienneLigue 2
2023-04-29Rodez1-1Saint-EtienneLigue 2
2022-11-12Saint-Etienne0-2RodezLigue 2
2022-10-29Saint-Etienne0-0RodezCoupe de France

Other Matchday 8 fixtures

Before and after this match