Why this pick: Nantes vs Reims
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Nantes 10, Reims 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Nantes vs Reims: model vs market
| Source | Nantes | Draw | Reims |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 22% | 24% | 54% |
| Market | 44% | 27% | 28% |
| Published | 39% | 26% | 35% |
| Edge | -6% | -1% | +6% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Nantes vs Reims odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Nantes, 15 snapshots since 2026-10-03.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nantes | 2.19 | 2.10 | -0.09 |
| Draw | 3.35 | 3.45 | +0.10 |
| Reims | 3.10 | 3.28 | +0.18 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Nantes and Reims expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.24
- Attack rating (Nantes / Reims)
- 0.90 / 1.49
- Defence rating (Nantes / Reims)
- 1.10 / 1.05
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Nantes vs Reims score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Nantes goals. Columns: Reims goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Nantes vs Reims goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 62%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Nantes vs Reims
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Nantes | 39% | 2.57 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.82 | |
| Reims | 35% | 2.87 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63% | 1.59 |
| Under 2.5 | 37% | 2.70 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62% | 1.60 |
| No | 38% | 2.66 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Nantes or draw) | 65% | 1.54 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| X2 (draw or Reims) | 61% | 1.64 | |
| Handicap -1 | Nantes win by 2+ | 9% | 10.61 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 13% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Nantes and Reims recent form
Nantes
2W 1D 3L
Reims
3W 3D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Nantes at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-2
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game on the road against 1.0 at home.
Reims away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-0
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.67
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
League matches this season before kick-off: Nantes at home only, Reims away only.
Expected lineups
Nantes lineup · 3-4-3
- 30 P. Carlgren
- 4 S. Sow
- 5 L. Perrin
- 98 K. Amian
- 26 R. Hachem
- 28 I. Sissoko
- 23 W. Younoussa
- 13 F. Doucouré
- 37 I. Ganago
- 27 T. Robinet
- 8 J. Lepenant
Bench: M. Dupé, A. Joujou, K. Corredor, D. Assoumani, F. Centonze, Louis Leroux, F. Guilbert, B. Pierret
Reims lineup · 4-2-3-1
- 1 T. Hülsmann
- 27 D. Guindo
- 22 S. Kotto
- 28 N. Ahouonon
- 21 J. Mambuku
- 61 C. Kouranfal
- 6 T. Leoni
- 9 M. Daramy
- 8 Y. Fofana
- 99 S. Soumano
Bench: John Otomewo, T. Diarrassouba, Y. El Kachati, E. Omeragic, Sergio Akieme, A. Gadou, J. Patrick, J. Celestin, Quentin Paris
Nantes vs Reims head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Nantes 2 · draws 1 · Reims 7.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-02 | Reims | 1-2 | Nantes | Ligue 1 |
| 2024-09-15 | Nantes | 1-2 | Reims | Ligue 1 |
| 2024-01-28 | Reims | 0-0 | Nantes | Ligue 1 |
| 2023-11-05 | Nantes | 0-1 | Reims | Ligue 1 |
| 2023-04-02 | Nantes | 0-3 | Reims | Ligue 1 |
| 2022-11-06 | Reims | 1-0 | Nantes | Ligue 1 |
| 2022-02-13 | Nantes | 1-0 | Reims | Ligue 1 |
| 2021-09-26 | Reims | 3-1 | Nantes | Ligue 1 |
| 2021-03-03 | Nantes | 1-2 | Reims | Ligue 1 |
| 2020-12-16 | Reims | 3-2 | Nantes | Ligue 1 |
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
- Montpellier vs Grenoble 2026-10-09
- Nancy v Guingamp — match page 2026-10-09
- Sochaux vs Boulogne — team news & stats 2026-10-09
- PAU vs Laval 2026-10-09
- Dunkerque v Annecy — match page 2026-10-09
- Clermont Foot vs RED Star FC 93 2026-10-10
- Saint-Etienne v Rodez — match page 2026-10-10
- Dijon vs Metz — team news & stats 2026-10-12
Before and after this match
- Nantes, next: Nantes vs Dunkerque prediction
- Reims, next: Reims vs Dijon prediction