Nantes vs Reims preview
Nantes hosts Reims in Ligue 2, with a model 1X2 probability showing Nantes at 37%, Reims at 36%, and a draw at 27%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 6% chance. With Over 2.5 goals at 63% and both teams to score at 62%, there is potential for an exciting match.
Nantes has a recent form of W-L-W-D-L-L, while Reims shows stronger form with D-W-D-W-W-D. Expected goals indicate Nantes at 1.24 and Reims at 2.01, suggesting Reims may have the edge in scoring. However, the confidence grade is C, indicating some uncertainty in the predictions.
Why this pick: Nantes vs Reims
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Nantes 10, Reims 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Nantes vs Reims: model vs market
| Source | Nantes | Draw | Reims |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 22% | 23% | 54% |
| Market | 43% | 28% | 30% |
| Published | 37% | 27% | 36% |
| Edge | -20% | -4% | +24% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.27, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
Nantes vs Reims odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Nantes, 8 snapshots since 2026-10-03.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nantes | 2.19 | 2.18 | -0.01 |
| Draw | 3.35 | 3.36 | +0.00 |
| Reims | 3.10 | 3.10 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Nantes and Reims expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.24
- Attack rating (Nantes / Reims)
- 0.90 / 1.49
- Defence rating (Nantes / Reims)
- 1.10 / 1.05
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Nantes vs Reims score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Nantes goals. Columns: Reims goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Nantes vs Reims goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 62%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Nantes vs Reims
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Nantes | 37% | 2.67 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.77 | |
| Reims | 36% | 2.78 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63% | 1.59 |
| Under 2.5 | 37% | 2.69 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62% | 1.60 |
| No | 38% | 2.66 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Nantes or draw) | 64% | 1.56 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.36 | |
| X2 (draw or Reims) | 63% | 1.60 | |
| Handicap -1 | Nantes win by 2+ | 9% | 10.70 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 13% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Nantes and Reims recent form
Nantes
2W 1D 3L
Reims
3W 3D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Nantes at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-2
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
Reims away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-0
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.67
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
- They average 2.7 goals per game at home against 2.0 on the road.
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Nantes at home only, Reims away only.
Nantes vs Reims head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Nantes 1 · draws 1 · Reims 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-02 | Reims | 1-2 | Nantes | Ligue 1 |
| 2024-09-15 | Nantes | 1-2 | Reims | Ligue 1 |
| 2024-01-28 | Reims | 0-0 | Nantes | Ligue 1 |
| 2023-11-05 | Nantes | 0-1 | Reims | Ligue 1 |
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