Updated

Ligue 2 · Matchday 8

Dijon vs Metz

· Stade Gaston-Gérard, Dijon· Referee Marc Bollengier

Full time4 – 2

Alin prediction was Dijon to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 1

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
DijonDrawMetz

Dijon vs Metz: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceDijonDrawMetz
Model48%26%27%
Market34%27%39%
Published38%27%36%
Edge+3%0%-3%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.77 vs 1.27.
  • Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Dijon below our published probability: +3.5 percentage points of edge.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Dijon vs Metz odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Dijon, 20 snapshots since 2026-10-03.

Opened 2.74Now 2.75 +0.01
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Dijon2.742.75+0.01
Draw3.513.48-0.03
Metz2.382.40+0.02

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Dijon and Metz expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.77Dijon
1.27Metz
Total expected goals
3.04
Attack rating (Dijon / Metz)
1.23 / 1.00
Defence rating (Dijon / Metz)
1.05 / 1.09

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Dijon vs Metz score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 5.9% 5.0% 3.9% 1.6% 0.7% 1 7.4% 11.8% 6.9% 2.9% 1.2% 2 7.5% 9.5% 6.0% 2.6% 1.1% 3 4.4% 5.6% 3.6% 1.5% 0.6% 4+ 2.9% 3.7% 2.3% 1.0% 0.4%

Rows: Dijon goals. Columns: Metz goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Dijon vs Metz goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 94%
Over 1.5 82%
Over 2.5 59%
Over 3.5 36%
Both teams to score
61%
No goals (0–0)
6%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Dijon vs Metz

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Dijon38%2.67
Draw27%3.76
Metz36%2.79
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.559%1.71
Under 2.541%2.41
Both teams to scoreYes61%1.65
No39%2.55
Double chance1X (Dijon or draw)64%1.56
12 (either side)73%1.36
X2 (draw or Metz)62%1.60
Handicap -1Dijon win by 2+27%3.74
Push (exactly one goal)21%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Dijon and Metz recent form

Dijon 2W 2D 2L
Metz 1W 4D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Dijon at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-2
Win rate
33%
Goals for / match
1.67
Goals against / match
2.00
Clean sheets
0 of 3
  • They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
  • 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Metz away

Record (W-D-L)
0-2-1
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.33
Goals against / match
0.67
Clean sheets
1 of 3
  • They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
  • They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 0.3 on the road.
  • 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Dijon at home only, Metz away only.

Expected lineups

Dijon lineup · 4-1-3-2

  1. 16 P. Delecroix
  2. 5 Q. Bernard
  3. 23 L. Lacroix
  4. 7 B. Hamada
  5. 14 J. Marié
  6. 20 H. Vargas-Ríos
  7. 17 A. Lembezat
  8. 8 P. Bellon
  9. 90 A. Lago
  10. 11 Júlio Tavares

Bench: W. Diouf, T. Dong, Y. Barka, B. Ndezi, Samy Olivier Chouchane, A. Ntamack, I. Bouleghcha

Metz lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 J. Fischer
  2. 3 F. Miguel
  3. 5 J. Ruiz
  4. 42 C. Devenish
  5. 2 M. Colin
  6. 18 B. Munongo
  7. 8 J. Deminguet
  8. 70 B. Sarr
  9. 12 A. Touré
  10. 9 G. Abuashvili
  11. 11 P. Fall

Bench: U. Mboula, Ibou Sané, M. Bokele Mputu, B. Song, P. Sy, A. Agne Ba, I. Mohamed

Dijon vs Metz head-to-head

Last 9 meetings: Dijon 2 · draws 4 · Metz 3.

DijonDrawsMetz
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2023-02-18Dijon0-0MetzLigue 2
2022-08-27Metz1-2DijonLigue 2
2021-05-02Dijon1-5MetzLigue 1
2020-11-08Metz1-1DijonLigue 1
2020-08-07Dijon1-2MetzFriendlies Clubs
2019-12-21Dijon2-2MetzLigue 1
2018-01-13Dijon1-1MetzLigue 1
2017-10-21Metz1-2DijonLigue 1
2017-02-08Metz2-1DijonLigue 1

Other Matchday 8 fixtures

Before and after this match