Dijon vs Metz Prediction & Betting Tips 12/10/2026

Dijon vs Metz: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Dijon	Draw	Metz
Model	48%	26%	27%
Market	34%	27%	40%
Published	37%	26%	36%
Edge	+14%	-1%	-13%

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.76 vs 1.28.
Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
The market prices Dijon below the model: +13.8 percentage points of edge.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.88, recorded 2026-10-06 — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update.

Dijon vs Metz odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Dijon, 8 snapshots since 2026-10-03.

Opened 2.74Now 2.75 +0.00

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
Dijon	2.74	2.75	+0.00
Draw	3.51	3.48	-0.03
Metz	2.38	2.35	-0.03

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Dijon and Metz expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.76Dijon

1.28Metz

Total expected goals: 3.03
Attack rating (Dijon / Metz): 1.22 / 1.00
Defence rating (Dijon / Metz): 1.04 / 1.09

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Dijon vs Metz score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 5.9% 5.1% 3.9% 1.7% 0.7% 1 7.4% 11.9% 6.9% 2.9% 1.2% 2 7.4% 9.5% 6.1% 2.6% 1.1% 3 4.4% 5.6% 3.5% 1.5% 0.6% 4+ 2.8% 3.6% 2.3% 1.0% 0.4%

Rows: Dijon goals. Columns: Metz goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Dijon vs Metz goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 94%

Over 1.5 82%

Over 2.5 58%

Over 3.5 36%

Both teams to score: 61%
No goals (0–0): 6%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Dijon vs Metz

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Dijon	37%	2.68
	Draw	26%	3.79
	Metz	36%	2.75
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	58%	1.71
	Under 2.5	42%	2.41
Both teams to score	Yes	61%	1.65
	No	39%	2.55
Double chance	1X (Dijon or draw)	64%	1.57
	12 (either side)	74%	1.36
	X2 (draw or Metz)	63%	1.59
Handicap -1	Dijon win by 2+	27%	3.77
	Push (exactly one goal)	21%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

Where to bet on this match in Kenya

Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit

All betting sites

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Dijon and Metz recent form

Dijon 2W 2D 2L

Metz 1W 4D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Dijon at home

Record (W-D-L): 1-0-2
Win rate: 33%
Goals for / match: 1.67
Goals against / match: 2.00
Clean sheets: 0 of 3

They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
55% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Metz away

Record (W-D-L): 0-2-1
Win rate: 0%
Goals for / match: 0.33
Goals against / match: 0.67
Clean sheets: 1 of 3

They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 0.3 on the road.

League matches this season before kick-off: Dijon at home only, Metz away only.

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Prediction snapshot Dijon to win Predicted score 2 – 1 C Bet on Dijon