Dunkerque vs Annecy: model vs market
| Source | Dunkerque | Draw | Annecy |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 29% | 24% | 46% |
| Market | 42% | 27% | 31% |
| Published | 39% | 26% | 35% |
| Edge | -3% | -1% | +4% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Dunkerque vs Annecy odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Dunkerque, 14 snapshots since 2026-10-03.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dunkerque | 2.20 | 2.20 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.42 | 3.48 | +0.05 |
| Annecy | 3.02 | 3.02 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Dunkerque and Annecy expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.32
- Attack rating (Dunkerque / Annecy)
- 1.04 / 1.15
- Defence rating (Dunkerque / Annecy)
- 1.32 / 1.06
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Dunkerque vs Annecy score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Dunkerque goals. Columns: Annecy goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Dunkerque vs Annecy goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 66%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Dunkerque vs Annecy
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Dunkerque | 39% | 2.56 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.81 | |
| Annecy | 35% | 2.88 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 64% | 1.55 |
| Under 2.5 | 36% | 2.81 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 66% | 1.52 |
| No | 34% | 2.92 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Dunkerque or draw) | 65% | 1.53 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.36 | |
| X2 (draw or Annecy) | 61% | 1.64 | |
| Handicap -1 | Dunkerque win by 2+ | 14% | 7.27 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 15% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Dunkerque and Annecy recent form
Dunkerque
1W 2D 3L
Annecy
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Dunkerque at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.75
- Goals against / match
- 1.25
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
- 63% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Annecy away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-2
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.25
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
League matches this season before kick-off: Dunkerque at home only, Annecy away only.
Expected lineups
Dunkerque lineup · 4-2-3-1
- 73 Moha Airam
- 24 L. Vallier
- 2 O. Touré
- 26 Opa Sanganté
- 27 A. Linguet
- 18 Théna Massock
- 6 J. Morel
- 11 E. Prutsev
- 10 A. Lebeau
- 7 K. Ayari
- 19 S. Keita
Bench: G. Robail, M. Prévot, L. Loussilaho, A. Nade, Franck Atoen, Abner, A. Daho, M. Niang
Annecy lineup · 4-3-3
- 1 F. Escales
- 27 J. Kouadio
- 26 A. Do Marcolino
- 23 M. Veillon
- 41 T. Delphis
- 25 P. Venot
- 80 M. Sahi
- 14 M. Koné
- 22 C. Billemaz
- 9 T. Rambaud
- 28 A. Larose
Bench: A. Casadei, P. Mozie, T. Callens, K. Veniere, Adam Yahi, E. Marre, Gabin Secrétant
Dunkerque vs Annecy head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Dunkerque 1 · draws 1 · Annecy 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-31 | Dunkerque | 0-1 | Annecy | Ligue 2 |
| 2025-08-16 | Annecy | 2-2 | Dunkerque | Ligue 2 |
| 2025-01-27 | Annecy | 0-2 | Dunkerque | Ligue 2 |
| 2024-08-16 | Dunkerque | 0-2 | Annecy | Ligue 2 |
| 2024-03-30 | Dunkerque | 0-2 | Annecy | Ligue 2 |
| 2023-08-19 | Annecy | 3-0 | Dunkerque | Ligue 2 |
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
- Montpellier vs Grenoble 2026-10-09
- Nancy v Guingamp — match page 2026-10-09
- Sochaux vs Boulogne — team news & stats 2026-10-09
- PAU vs Laval 2026-10-09
- Nantes vs Reims — team news & stats 2026-10-10
- Clermont Foot vs RED Star FC 93 2026-10-10
- Saint-Etienne v Rodez — match page 2026-10-10
- Dijon vs Metz — team news & stats 2026-10-12
Before and after this match
- Dunkerque, next: Nantes vs Dunkerque prediction
- Annecy, next: Annecy vs Nancy: odds and pick