Nancy vs Guingamp preview
The fixture between Nancy and Guingamp shows a 46% probability for a Nancy win in the 1X2 market. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which aligns with a strong expectation of Over 2.5 goals at 61% and both teams to score at 62%.
Nancy's recent form includes three wins in their last six matches, while Guingamp has two wins in their last six. The head-to-head record favors Guingamp with four wins and five draws in the last ten encounters. This could affect the outcome, as past performances might influence the current match dynamics. The confidence grade is C, indicating some uncertainty in the predictions.
Nancy vs Guingamp: model vs market
| Source | Nancy | Draw | Guingamp |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 50% | 25% | 26% |
| Market | 45% | 26% | 29% |
| Published | 46% | 26% | 28% |
| Edge | +5% | -1% | -3% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.85 vs 1.29.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Nancy below the model: +4.7 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.15, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
Nancy vs Guingamp odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Nancy, 8 snapshots since 2026-10-03.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nancy | 2.20 | 2.05 | -0.15 |
| Draw | 3.49 | 3.50 | +0.01 |
| Guingamp | 3.00 | 3.18 | +0.18 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Nancy and Guingamp expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.13
- Attack rating (Nancy / Guingamp)
- 1.13 / 0.95
- Defence rating (Nancy / Guingamp)
- 1.11 / 1.24
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Nancy vs Guingamp score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Nancy goals. Columns: Guingamp goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Nancy vs Guingamp goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 62%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Nancy vs Guingamp
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Nancy | 46% | 2.17 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.86 | |
| Guingamp | 28% | 3.56 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61% | 1.65 |
| Under 2.5 | 39% | 2.53 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62% | 1.61 |
| No | 38% | 2.63 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Nancy or draw) | 72% | 1.39 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| X2 (draw or Guingamp) | 54% | 1.85 | |
| Handicap -1 | Nancy win by 2+ | 28% | 3.53 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Nancy and Guingamp recent form
Nancy
3W 0D 3L
Guingamp
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Nancy at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-2
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
Guingamp away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.67
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
League matches this season before kick-off: Nancy at home only, Guingamp away only.
Nancy vs Guingamp head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Nancy 1 · draws 5 · Guingamp 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-19 | Nancy | 0-3 | Guingamp | Ligue 2 |
| 2025-10-03 | Guingamp | 2-2 | Nancy | Ligue 2 |
| 2022-03-19 | Guingamp | 3-1 | Nancy | Ligue 2 |
| 2021-10-16 | Nancy | 2-1 | Guingamp | Ligue 2 |
| 2021-07-17 | Nancy | 2-2 | Guingamp | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2021-01-16 | Guingamp | 0-0 | Nancy | Ligue 2 |
| 2020-08-29 | Nancy | 2-2 | Guingamp | Ligue 2 |
| 2020-02-15 | Nancy | 0-1 | Guingamp | Ligue 2 |
| 2019-09-13 | Guingamp | 1-1 | Nancy | Ligue 2 |
| 2019-01-22 | Nancy | 1-2 | Guingamp | Coupe de France |
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