Nancy vs Guingamp: model vs market
| Source | Nancy | Draw | Guingamp |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 50% | 25% | 26% |
| Market | 49% | 26% | 25% |
| Published | 49% | 26% | 25% |
| Edge | 0% | 0% | 0% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.85 vs 1.29.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Nancy vs Guingamp odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Nancy, 14 snapshots since 2026-10-03.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nancy | 2.20 | 1.90 | -0.31 |
| Draw | 3.49 | 3.60 | +0.11 |
| Guingamp | 3.00 | 3.77 | +0.77 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Nancy and Guingamp expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.13
- Attack rating (Nancy / Guingamp)
- 1.13 / 0.95
- Defence rating (Nancy / Guingamp)
- 1.11 / 1.24
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Nancy vs Guingamp score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Nancy goals. Columns: Guingamp goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Nancy vs Guingamp goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 62%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Nancy vs Guingamp
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Nancy | 49% | 2.03 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.90 | |
| Guingamp | 25% | 4.00 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61% | 1.65 |
| Under 2.5 | 39% | 2.53 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62% | 1.61 |
| No | 38% | 2.63 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Nancy or draw) | 75% | 1.33 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| X2 (draw or Guingamp) | 51% | 1.97 | |
| Handicap -1 | Nancy win by 2+ | 28% | 3.53 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Nancy and Guingamp recent form
Nancy
3W 0D 3L
Guingamp
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Nancy at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-2
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
Guingamp away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.67
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
League matches this season before kick-off: Nancy at home only, Guingamp away only.
Expected lineups
Guingamp lineup
- 36 A. Demouchy
- 10 A. Hemia
- 16 Adrián Ortolá
- 22 B. Bokangu
- 4 D. Louiserre
- 2 E. Koffi
- 8 F. Da Silva
- 24 J. Dianganga
- 20 S. Ben Brahim
- 21 T. Ahile
- 5 T. Ollila
Bench: T. Bartouche, J. Matumona, T. Averlant, A. Samoura, S. Kielt, T. Ducrocq, J. Matondo, I. Diakite, N. Fondja
Nancy vs Guingamp head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Nancy 1 · draws 5 · Guingamp 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-19 | Nancy | 0-3 | Guingamp | Ligue 2 |
| 2025-10-03 | Guingamp | 2-2 | Nancy | Ligue 2 |
| 2022-03-19 | Guingamp | 3-1 | Nancy | Ligue 2 |
| 2021-10-16 | Nancy | 2-1 | Guingamp | Ligue 2 |
| 2021-07-17 | Nancy | 2-2 | Guingamp | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2021-01-16 | Guingamp | 0-0 | Nancy | Ligue 2 |
| 2020-08-29 | Nancy | 2-2 | Guingamp | Ligue 2 |
| 2020-02-15 | Nancy | 0-1 | Guingamp | Ligue 2 |
| 2019-09-13 | Guingamp | 1-1 | Nancy | Ligue 2 |
| 2019-01-22 | Nancy | 1-2 | Guingamp | Coupe de France |
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
- Montpellier vs Grenoble 2026-10-09
- Sochaux vs Boulogne — team news & stats 2026-10-09
- PAU vs Laval 2026-10-09
- Dunkerque v Annecy — match page 2026-10-09
- Nantes vs Reims — team news & stats 2026-10-10
- Clermont Foot vs RED Star FC 93 2026-10-10
- Saint-Etienne v Rodez — match page 2026-10-10
- Dijon vs Metz — team news & stats 2026-10-12
Before and after this match
- Nancy, next: Annecy vs Nancy: odds and pick
- Guingamp, next: Guingamp vs PAU: odds and pick