Updated

Ligue 2 · Matchday 8

Montpellier vs Grenoble

· Stade de la Mosson, Montpellier· Referee Retail Pierre

Full time2 – 0

Alin prediction was Montpellier to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 0

15% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
MontpellierDrawGrenoble

Montpellier vs Grenoble: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceMontpellierDrawGrenoble
Model41%34%25%
Market59%24%17%
Published54%27%19%
Edge-4%+2%+2%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.10 vs 0.80.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Montpellier vs Grenoble odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Montpellier, 14 snapshots since 2026-10-03.

Opened 1.62Now 1.60 -0.02
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Montpellier1.621.60-0.02
Draw3.783.87+0.09
Grenoble5.275.50+0.23

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Montpellier and Grenoble expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.10Montpellier
0.80Grenoble
Total expected goals
1.90
Attack rating (Montpellier / Grenoble)
0.84 / 0.92
Defence rating (Montpellier / Grenoble)
0.71 / 1.00

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Montpellier vs Grenoble score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 16.2% 10.6% 4.8% 1.3% 0.3% 1 15.1% 14.5% 5.3% 1.4% 0.3% 2 9.1% 7.3% 2.9% 0.8% 0.2% 3 3.3% 2.7% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 4+ 1.2% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%

Rows: Montpellier goals. Columns: Grenoble goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Montpellier vs Grenoble goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 84%
Over 1.5 58%
Over 2.5 30%
Over 3.5 13%
Both teams to score
38%
No goals (0–0)
16%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Montpellier vs Grenoble

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Montpellier54%1.84
Draw27%3.75
Grenoble19%5.25
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.530%3.37
Under 2.570%1.42
Both teams to scoreYes38%2.62
No62%1.62
Double chance1X (Montpellier or draw)81%1.24
12 (either side)73%1.36
X2 (draw or Grenoble)46%2.19
Handicap -1Montpellier win by 2+18%5.69
Push (exactly one goal)24%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Montpellier and Grenoble recent form

Montpellier 3W 2D 1L
Grenoble 2W 2D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Montpellier at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-2-0
Win rate
33%
Goals for / match
0.67
Goals against / match
0.33
Clean sheets
2 of 3
  • They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 7 matches.

Grenoble away

Record (W-D-L)
2-0-2
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
1.50
Goals against / match
2.00
Clean sheets
2 of 4
  • They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They average 1.5 goals per game on the road against 0.7 at home.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
  • 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Montpellier at home only, Grenoble away only.

Expected lineups

Montpellier lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 31 S. Ngapandouetnbu
  2. 17 T. Sainte-Luce
  3. 27 D. Meddah
  4. 15 J. Laporte
  5. 58 A. Sissoko
  6. 5 F. Tardieu
  7. 40 N. Vidal-Cartoux
  8. 19 N. Mukiele
  9. 44 T. Chennahi
  10. 18 N. Pays
  11. 11 M. Camara

Bench: M. Michel, Naoufel El Hannach, Y. Mouanga, Y. Benhattab, Daryll Benlahlou, Hichem Abderrebi, Everson, Gregory Ayem

Grenoble lineup · 4-1-4-1

  1. 1 A. Olliero
  2. 27 M. Xantippe
  3. 5 C. Vidal
  4. 43 A. Pelon
  5. 19 N. Zahui
  6. 6 Y. Magnin
  7. 10 B. Mouazan
  8. 14 M. Corboz
  9. 30 S. Diba
  10. 97 Y. Maçon
  11. 12 U. Bonnet

Bench: M. Djitté, L. Bernadou, B. Allain, L. Cerri, D. Hoogewerf, J. Akpa Akpro

Montpellier vs Grenoble head-to-head

Last 2 meetings: Montpellier 1 · draws 1 · Grenoble 0.

MontpellierDrawsGrenoble
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-04-17Montpellier2-1GrenobleLigue 2
2025-12-13Grenoble1-1MontpellierLigue 2

Other Matchday 8 fixtures

Before and after this match