Rodez vs Montpellier preview
In the upcoming match between Rodez and Montpellier, the 1X2 probabilities show Montpellier at 40% to win, compared to Rodez's 31%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, with a 10% chance according to our model. Rodez's recent form includes 4 losses and 1 draw, while Montpellier has won 3 of their last 5 matches.
Both teams to score stands at 52%, suggesting a decent chance for goals from both sides. However, Rodez's expected goals are only 1.06, which could limit their scoring opportunities. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating some uncertainty in the predictions. If Montpellier underperforms or Rodez finds their scoring touch, the expected outcomes could change.
Rodez vs Montpellier: model vs market
| Source | Rodez | Draw | Montpellier |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 25% | 28% | 47% |
| Market | 34% | 28% | 38% |
| Published | 32% | 28% | 40% |
| Edge | -9% | 0% | +9% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.53 vs 1.05.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Montpellier below the model: +8.8 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.62, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.
Rodez vs Montpellier odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Montpellier, 11 snapshots since 2026-10-12.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rodez | 2.80 | 2.71 | -0.09 |
| Draw | 3.45 | 3.25 | -0.20 |
| Montpellier | 2.36 | 2.39 | +0.03 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Rodez and Montpellier expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.58
- Attack rating (Rodez / Montpellier)
- 1.19 / 0.89
- Defence rating (Rodez / Montpellier)
- 1.39 / 0.66
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Rodez vs Montpellier score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Rodez goals. Columns: Montpellier goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Rodez vs Montpellier goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 52%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Rodez vs Montpellier
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Rodez | 32% | 3.17 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.56 | |
| Montpellier | 40% | 2.48 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 48% | 2.10 |
| Under 2.5 | 52% | 1.91 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52% | 1.92 |
| No | 48% | 2.09 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Rodez or draw) | 60% | 1.68 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.39 | |
| X2 (draw or Montpellier) | 68% | 1.46 | |
| Handicap -1 | Montpellier win by 2+ | 24% | 4.09 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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Rodez and Montpellier recent form
Rodez
1W 1D 4L
Montpellier
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Rodez at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-2
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
Montpellier away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 7 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Rodez at home only, Montpellier away only.
Rodez vs Montpellier head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Rodez 1 · draws 0 · Montpellier 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-20 | Rodez | 1-0 | Montpellier | Ligue 2 |
| 2025-10-31 | Montpellier | 2-0 | Rodez | Ligue 2 |
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
- Guingamp vs PAU 2026-10-16
- Reims v Dijon — match page 2026-10-16
- Grenoble vs Boulogne — team news & stats 2026-10-16
- Laval vs Clermont Foot 2026-10-16
- Annecy v Nancy — match page 2026-10-16
- Nantes vs Dunkerque — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Metz vs Sochaux 2026-10-17
- RED Star FC 93 v Saint-Etienne — match page 2026-10-17
Before and after this match
- Rodez, previous: Saint-Etienne – Rodez, 2026-10-10
- Rodez, next: Dijon – Rodez, 2026-10-24
- Montpellier, previous: Montpellier v Grenoble analysis
- Montpellier, next: Montpellier vs RED Star FC 93 prediction