Updated

Ligue 2 · Matchday 9

RED Star FC 93 vs Saint-Etienne

· Stade de Paris, Saint-Ouen· Referee Antoine Valnet

Full time0 – 1

Alin prediction was Saint-Etienne to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 2

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
RED Star FC 93DrawSaint-Etienne

RED Star FC 93 vs Saint-Etienne: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceRED Star FC 93DrawSaint-Etienne
Model30%23%47%
Market30%27%43%
Published30%26%44%
Edge-1%-3%+4%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.99 vs 1.56.
  • The market prices Saint-Etienne below the model: +4.0 percentage points of edge.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

RED Star FC 93 vs Saint-Etienne odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Saint-Etienne, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-12.

Opened 2.02Now 2.15 +0.12
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
RED Star FC 933.503.05-0.45
Draw3.333.45+0.12
Saint-Etienne2.022.15+0.12

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

RED Star FC 93 and Saint-Etienne expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.56RED Star FC 93
1.99Saint-Etienne
Total expected goals
3.55
Attack rating (RED Star FC 93 / Saint-Etienne)
1.31 / 1.51
Defence rating (RED Star FC 93 / Saint-Etienne)
1.06 / 0.89

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

RED Star FC 93 vs Saint-Etienne score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 3.8% 4.8% 5.7% 3.8% 3.0% 1 3.6% 9.8% 8.9% 5.9% 4.6% 2 3.5% 7.0% 6.9% 4.6% 3.6% 3 1.8% 3.6% 3.6% 2.4% 1.9% 4+ 1.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.3% 1.0%

Rows: RED Star FC 93 goals. Columns: Saint-Etienne goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

RED Star FC 93 vs Saint-Etienne goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 96%
Over 1.5 88%
Over 2.5 69%
Over 3.5 47%
Both teams to score
69%
No goals (0–0)
4%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for RED Star FC 93 vs Saint-Etienne

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2RED Star FC 9330%3.32
Draw26%3.86
Saint-Etienne44%2.27
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.569%1.45
Under 2.531%3.21
Both teams to scoreYes69%1.45
No31%3.23
Double chance1X (RED Star FC 93 or draw)56%1.79
12 (either side)74%1.35
X2 (draw or Saint-Etienne)70%1.43
Handicap -1Saint-Etienne win by 2+27%3.66
Push (exactly one goal)20%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

RED Star FC 93 and Saint-Etienne recent form

RED Star FC 93 4W 1D 1L
Saint-Etienne 4W 1D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

RED Star FC 93 at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-1-1
Win rate
33%
Goals for / match
0.67
Goals against / match
1.33
Clean sheets
2 of 3
  • They have won 5 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 0.7 at home.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
  • 48% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Saint-Etienne away

Record (W-D-L)
2-1-1
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
2.25
Goals against / match
1.50
Clean sheets
1 of 4
  • They have won 6 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.6 goals per match.
  • They average 3.0 goals per game at home against 2.2 on the road.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: RED Star FC 93 at home only, Saint-Etienne away only.

Expected lineups

RED Star FC 93 lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 16 G. Poussin
  2. 4 E. Zidane
  3. 5 J. Escartin
  4. 20 D. Durivaux
  5. 3 M. Huard
  6. 17 S. Renel
  7. 19 I. Halifa
  8. 7 D. Durand
  9. 27 G. Kyeremeh
  10. 11 K. Cissé
  11. 23 J. Ikanga A Ngele

Bench: Yanis Benchaouch Marty, T. Magnin, B. Danger, I. Despotovic, S. Khaoui, Idrissa Sabaly, Leonardo Buta, Cheick Konate, C. Bianay Balcot

Saint-Etienne lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 Mamour Ndiaye
  2. 11 B. Old
  3. 18 S. Nair
  4. 26 J. Le Cardinal
  5. 23 K. Pedro
  6. 14 Á. Csongvai
  7. 6 M. Bernauer
  8. 8 T. Ballo
  9. 10 J. Breum
  10. 20 A. Boakye
  11. 7 I. Cardona

Bench: M. Jaber, João Ferreira, J. Duffus, Z. Davitashvili, N. El Jamali, Adam Baallal, N. Kasia Nkondo, L. Lavallée, E. Dhaoui

RED Star FC 93 vs Saint-Etienne head-to-head

Last 3 meetings: RED Star FC 93 1 · draws 0 · Saint-Etienne 2.

RED Star FC 93DrawsSaint-Etienne
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-03-07Saint-Etienne2-0RED Star FC 93Ligue 2
2025-11-01RED Star FC 932-1Saint-EtienneLigue 2
2015-02-10RED Star FC 931-2Saint-EtienneCoupe de France

Other Matchday 9 fixtures

Before and after this match