Metz vs Sochaux: model vs market
| Source | Metz | Draw | Sochaux |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 27% | 28% | 45% |
| Market | 54% | 26% | 20% |
| Published | 47% | 27% | 26% |
| Edge | -26% | +2% | +24% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Metz vs Sochaux odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Metz, 10 snapshots since 2026-10-12.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Metz | 1.83 | 1.73 | -0.10 |
| Draw | 3.52 | 3.57 | +0.05 |
| Sochaux | 4.18 | 4.54 | +0.36 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Metz and Sochaux expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.61
- Attack rating (Metz / Sochaux)
- 1.07 / 0.94
- Defence rating (Metz / Sochaux)
- 1.30 / 0.79
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Metz vs Sochaux score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Metz goals. Columns: Sochaux goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Metz vs Sochaux goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 53%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Metz vs Sochaux
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Metz | 47% | 2.13 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.76 | |
| Sochaux | 26% | 3.77 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 49% | 2.06 |
| Under 2.5 | 51% | 1.94 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53% | 1.87 |
| No | 47% | 2.15 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Metz or draw) | 74% | 1.36 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.36 | |
| X2 (draw or Sochaux) | 53% | 1.88 | |
| Handicap -1 | Metz win by 2+ | 11% | 8.95 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 16% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Metz and Sochaux recent form
Metz
1W 3D 2L
Sochaux
2W 4D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Metz at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-0
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 2.25
- Goals against / match
- 1.25
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Sochaux away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-4-0
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.50
- Goals against / match
- 0.50
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Metz at home only, Sochaux away only.
Expected lineups
Metz lineup · 4-2-3-1
- 1 J. Fischer
- 4 U. Mboula
- 5 J. Ruiz
- 42 C. Devenish
- 70 B. Sarr
- 98 I. Mohamed
- 8 J. Deminguet
- 9 G. Abuashvili
- 10 T. Savanier
- 11 P. Fall
Bench: M. Colin, F. Miguel, Ibou Sané, A. Touré, B. Munongo, N. Mbala, H. Kadamani, B. Song, P. Sy
Sochaux lineup · 4-2-3-1
- 40 M. Jeannin
- 3 D. Gomis
- 14 M. Peybernes
- 97 S. Agouzoul
- 26 E. N'Gatta
- 23 J. Masson
- 21 B. Diawara
- 7 B. Gomel
- 24 Y. Demoncy
- 77 L. Nomel
- 9 K. Djoco
Bench: S. Baghdadi, B. Fofana, L. Deedson, J. Mexique, A. Pierre, Dylan Tavares, N. K. Mouyema, M. Clairicia
Metz vs Sochaux head-to-head
Last 8 meetings: Metz 6 · draws 2 · Sochaux 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-22 | Metz | 4-1 | Sochaux | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2023-05-26 | Sochaux | 0-1 | Metz | Ligue 2 |
| 2022-10-15 | Metz | 0-0 | Sochaux | Ligue 2 |
| 2022-07-23 | Metz | 1-0 | Sochaux | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2019-03-11 | Metz | 1-1 | Sochaux | Ligue 2 |
| 2018-10-08 | Sochaux | 1-2 | Metz | Ligue 2 |
| 2016-01-11 | Metz | 1-0 | Sochaux | Ligue 2 |
| 2015-08-07 | Sochaux | 0-1 | Metz | Ligue 2 |
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
- Guingamp vs PAU 2026-10-16
- Reims v Dijon — match page 2026-10-16
- Grenoble vs Boulogne — team news & stats 2026-10-16
- Laval vs Clermont Foot 2026-10-16
- Annecy v Nancy — match page 2026-10-16
- Nantes vs Dunkerque — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- RED Star FC 93 v Saint-Etienne — match page 2026-10-17
- Rodez vs Montpellier — team news & stats 2026-10-19
Before and after this match
- Metz, previous: Dijon v Metz analysis
- Metz, next: Dunkerque vs Metz prediction
- Sochaux, previous: Sochaux vs Boulogne prediction
- Sochaux, next: Sochaux vs Annecy prediction