Dunkerque vs Metz preview
Dunkerque faces Metz with a 1X2 probability of 37% for Dunkerque, 25% for a draw, and 38% for Metz. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, which occurs with an 8% probability. Both teams to score stands at 66%, while Over 2.5 goals is projected at 64%.
Dunkerque's recent form shows 3 losses and 1 draw in their last 5 matches, while Metz has 2 draws and 1 win in the same period. The expected goals are closely matched, with Dunkerque at 1.65 and Metz at 1.66. The confidence grade is C, indicating some uncertainty in the predictions. A significant factor that could affect the outcome is if either team can improve their recent form.
Dunkerque vs Metz: model vs market
| Source | Dunkerque | Draw | Metz |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 41% | 23% | 36% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 41% | 23% | 36% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Dunkerque and Metz expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.76
- Attack rating (Dunkerque / Metz)
- 1.09 / 1.20
- Defence rating (Dunkerque / Metz)
- 1.23 / 1.33
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Dunkerque vs Metz score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Dunkerque goals. Columns: Metz goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Dunkerque vs Metz goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 73%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Dunkerque vs Metz
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Dunkerque | 41% | 2.46 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.35 | |
| Metz | 36% | 2.76 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 73% | 1.38 |
| Under 2.5 | 27% | 3.64 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 73% | 1.38 |
| No | 27% | 3.65 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Dunkerque or draw) | 64% | 1.57 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.30 | |
| X2 (draw or Metz) | 59% | 1.69 | |
| Handicap -1 | Dunkerque win by 2+ | 23% | 4.40 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Dunkerque and Metz recent form
Dunkerque
2W 1D 3L
Metz
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Dunkerque at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-2
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.40
- Goals against / match
- 1.20
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 8 matches.
- 57% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Metz away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.75
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Dunkerque at home only, Metz away only.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- Clermont Foot vs Guingamp — team news & stats 2026-10-23
- Nancy vs Laval 2026-10-23
- Sochaux v Annecy — match page 2026-10-23
- PAU vs Grenoble 2026-10-23
- Montpellier vs RED Star FC 93 2026-10-24
- Dijon v Rodez — match page 2026-10-24
Before and after this match
- Dunkerque, previous: Nantes vs Dunkerque prediction
- Metz, previous: Metz – Sochaux, 2026-10-17