PAU vs Grenoble preview
In the upcoming match between PAU and Grenoble, the 1X2 probabilities suggest a 51% chance for PAU to win, while Grenoble has a 22% chance. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with PAU expected to score 1.57 goals and Grenoble 1.06.
However, both teams have shown mixed recent form, with PAU winning 3 of their last 6 matches and Grenoble winning 2. The likelihood of Over 2.5 goals stands at 49%, and both teams to score is at 53%. These factors could lead to a different outcome than predicted, especially considering their head-to-head record, which shows 2 draws and no wins for either side.
PAU vs Grenoble: model vs market
| Source | PAU | Draw | Grenoble |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 48% | 28% | 25% |
| Market | 52% | 27% | 21% |
| Published | 51% | 27% | 22% |
| Edge | -4% | +1% | +3% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.56 vs 1.06.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.80, recorded — the top price across the 3 books we record, each at its own last update.
PAU vs Grenoble odds movement
Median bookmaker price on PAU, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-17.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| PAU | 1.80 | 1.78 | -0.02 |
| Draw | 3.48 | 3.48 | +0.00 |
| Grenoble | 4.30 | 4.40 | +0.10 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
PAU and Grenoble expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.62
- Attack rating (PAU / Grenoble)
- 1.08 / 0.75
- Defence rating (PAU / Grenoble)
- 1.14 / 1.08
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
PAU vs Grenoble score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: PAU goals. Columns: Grenoble goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
PAU vs Grenoble goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 53%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for PAU vs Grenoble
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | PAU | 51% | 1.96 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.71 | |
| Grenoble | 22% | 4.55 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 49% | 2.05 |
| Under 2.5 | 51% | 1.95 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53% | 1.89 |
| No | 47% | 2.12 | |
| Double chance | 1X (PAU or draw) | 78% | 1.28 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.37 | |
| X2 (draw or Grenoble) | 49% | 2.04 | |
| Handicap -1 | PAU win by 2+ | 25% | 3.97 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
PAU and Grenoble recent form
PAU
3W 2D 1L
Grenoble
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
PAU at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-2
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.20
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
Grenoble away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-3
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.20
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game on the road against 0.7 at home.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
- 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: PAU at home only, Grenoble away only.
PAU vs Grenoble head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: PAU 0 · draws 2 · Grenoble 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-23 | PAU | 2-2 | Grenoble | Ligue 2 |
| 2025-10-17 | Grenoble | 1-1 | PAU | Ligue 2 |
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- Clermont Foot vs Guingamp — team news & stats 2026-10-23
- Nancy vs Laval 2026-10-23
- Sochaux v Annecy — match page 2026-10-23
- Dunkerque vs Metz — team news & stats 2026-10-23
- Montpellier vs RED Star FC 93 2026-10-24
- Dijon v Rodez — match page 2026-10-24
Before and after this match
- PAU, previous: Guingamp vs PAU: odds and pick
- Grenoble, previous: Grenoble – Boulogne, 2026-10-16