Dijon vs Rodez preview
Dijon faces Rodez with a 53% chance of winning, and the most likely scoreline is 2-1 at 7%. The model suggests a high likelihood of goals, with Over 2.5 goals at 83% and both teams to score at 79%.
Dijon has an expected goals figure of 2.61, while Rodez sits at 1.89. Recent form shows Dijon with mixed results, including a recent win, while Rodez has struggled, losing four of their last five matches. This could impact the outcome, as Rodez's form may lead to fewer scoring opportunities.
Dijon vs Rodez: model vs market
| Source | Dijon | Draw | Rodez |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 53% | 20% | 27% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 53% | 20% | 27% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.61 vs 1.89.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Dijon and Rodez expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.51
- Attack rating (Dijon / Rodez)
- 1.41 / 1.19
- Defence rating (Dijon / Rodez)
- 1.28 / 1.39
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Dijon vs Rodez score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Dijon goals. Columns: Rodez goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Dijon vs Rodez goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 79%
- No goals (0–0)
- 2%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Dijon vs Rodez
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Dijon | 53% | 1.88 |
| Draw | 20% | 5.12 | |
| Rodez | 27% | 3.66 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 83% | 1.21 |
| Under 2.5 | 17% | 5.78 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 79% | 1.26 |
| No | 21% | 4.82 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Dijon or draw) | 73% | 1.38 |
| 12 (either side) | 80% | 1.24 | |
| X2 (draw or Rodez) | 47% | 2.14 | |
| Handicap -1 | Dijon win by 2+ | 35% | 2.88 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Dijon and Rodez recent form
Dijon
3W 1D 2L
Rodez
1W 1D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Dijon at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-2
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 2.25
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Rodez away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-3
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 2.50
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
League matches this season before kick-off: Dijon at home only, Rodez away only.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- Clermont Foot vs Guingamp — team news & stats 2026-10-23
- Nancy vs Laval 2026-10-23
- Sochaux v Annecy — match page 2026-10-23
- PAU vs Grenoble 2026-10-23
- Dunkerque vs Metz — team news & stats 2026-10-23
- Montpellier vs RED Star FC 93 2026-10-24
Before and after this match
- Dijon, previous: Reims vs Dijon prediction
- Rodez, previous: Rodez vs Montpellier: odds and pick