Sochaux vs Boulogne: model vs market
| Source | Sochaux | Draw | Boulogne |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 49% | 34% | 17% |
| Market | 41% | 29% | 30% |
| Published | 43% | 31% | 27% |
| Edge | +2% | +1% | -3% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.15 vs 0.56.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Sochaux below our published probability: +2.2 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Sochaux vs Boulogne odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Sochaux, 14 snapshots since 2026-10-03.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sochaux | 2.23 | 2.30 | +0.07 |
| Draw | 3.20 | 3.18 | -0.02 |
| Boulogne | 3.21 | 3.10 | -0.10 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Sochaux and Boulogne expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 1.71
- Attack rating (Sochaux / Boulogne)
- 0.99 / 0.58
- Defence rating (Sochaux / Boulogne)
- 0.79 / 0.89
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Sochaux vs Boulogne score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Sochaux goals. Columns: Boulogne goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Sochaux vs Boulogne goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 30%
- No goals (0–0)
- 19%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Sochaux vs Boulogne
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sochaux | 43% | 2.34 |
| Draw | 31% | 3.28 | |
| Boulogne | 27% | 3.74 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 25% | 4.08 |
| Under 2.5 | 75% | 1.32 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 30% | 3.30 |
| No | 70% | 1.44 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Sochaux or draw) | 73% | 1.36 |
| 12 (either side) | 69% | 1.44 | |
| X2 (draw or Boulogne) | 57% | 1.75 | |
| Handicap -1 | Sochaux win by 2+ | 22% | 4.51 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 27% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Sochaux and Boulogne recent form
Sochaux
2W 4D 0L
Boulogne
0W 4D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Sochaux at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-1
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 0.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 3
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
Boulogne away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.33
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 3
- They have won 0 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.4 goals per match.
- They average 0.8 goals per game at home against 0.0 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 7 matches.
- 53% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Sochaux at home only, Boulogne away only.
Expected lineups
Sochaux lineup · 4-2-3-1
- 40 M. Jeannin
- 3 D. Gomis
- 14 M. Peybernes
- 4 A. Vitelli
- 26 E. N'Gatta
- 23 J. Masson
- 21 B. Diawara
- 7 B. Gomel
- 24 Y. Demoncy
- 77 L. Nomel
- 9 K. Djoco
Bench: S. Baghdadi, B. Fofana, L. Deedson, J. Mexique, P. Diop, A. Pierre, Dylan Tavares, M. Clairicia, S. Agouzoul
Sochaux vs Boulogne head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Sochaux 1 · draws 1 · Boulogne 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-02 | Boulogne | 2-3 | Sochaux | Ligue 3 |
| 2025-01-10 | Sochaux | 1-1 | Boulogne | Ligue 3 |
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
- Montpellier vs Grenoble 2026-10-09
- Nancy v Guingamp — match page 2026-10-09
- PAU vs Laval 2026-10-09
- Dunkerque v Annecy — match page 2026-10-09
- Nantes vs Reims — team news & stats 2026-10-10
- Clermont Foot vs RED Star FC 93 2026-10-10
- Saint-Etienne v Rodez — match page 2026-10-10
- Dijon vs Metz — team news & stats 2026-10-12
Before and after this match
- Sochaux, next: Metz – Sochaux, 2026-10-17
- Boulogne, next: Grenoble – Boulogne, 2026-10-16