Updated

Ligue 2 · Matchday 9

Nantes vs Dunkerque

· Stade de la Beaujoire, Nantes· Referee Benoit Millot

Full time2 – 3

Alin prediction was Nantes to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 1 – 0

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
NantesDrawDunkerque

Nantes vs Dunkerque: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceNantesDrawDunkerque
Model40%29%31%
Market57%24%19%
Published53%25%22%
Edge-17%+5%+12%
  • Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Nantes vs Dunkerque odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Nantes, 13 snapshots since 2026-10-11.

Opened 1.66Now 1.62 -0.04
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Nantes1.661.62-0.04
Draw3.913.92+0.01
Dunkerque4.844.82-0.02

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Nantes and Dunkerque expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.39Nantes
1.19Dunkerque
Total expected goals
2.58
Attack rating (Nantes / Dunkerque)
0.83 / 0.96
Defence rating (Nantes / Dunkerque)
1.01 / 1.26

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Nantes vs Dunkerque score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 8.8% 7.8% 5.3% 2.1% 0.8% 1 9.3% 13.8% 7.4% 2.9% 1.1% 2 7.4% 8.7% 5.2% 2.0% 0.8% 3 3.4% 4.0% 2.4% 0.9% 0.4% 4+ 1.6% 1.9% 1.1% 0.4% 0.2%

Rows: Nantes goals. Columns: Dunkerque goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Nantes vs Dunkerque goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 91%
Over 1.5 74%
Over 2.5 48%
Over 3.5 26%
Both teams to score
53%
No goals (0–0)
9%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Nantes vs Dunkerque

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Nantes53%1.88
Draw25%4.02
Dunkerque22%4.53
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.548%2.10
Under 2.552%1.91
Both teams to scoreYes53%1.87
No47%2.15
Double chance1X (Nantes or draw)78%1.28
12 (either side)75%1.33
X2 (draw or Dunkerque)47%2.13
Handicap -1Nantes win by 2+20%5.10
Push (exactly one goal)21%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Nantes and Dunkerque recent form

Nantes 2W 2D 2L
Dunkerque 1W 1D 4L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Nantes at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-1-2
Win rate
25%
Goals for / match
0.75
Goals against / match
1.50
Clean sheets
2 of 4
  • They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They average 1.5 goals per game on the road against 0.8 at home.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.

Dunkerque away

Record (W-D-L)
0-1-2
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
2.33
Clean sheets
0 of 3
  • They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 8 matches.
  • 57% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Nantes at home only, Dunkerque away only.

Expected lineups

Nantes lineup · 3-4-3

  1. 30 P. Carlgren
  2. 98 K. Amian
  3. 5 L. Perrin
  4. 4 S. Sow
  5. 26 R. Hachem
  6. 28 I. Sissoko
  7. 8 J. Lepenant
  8. 13 F. Doucouré
  9. 12 K. Corredor
  10. 27 T. Robinet
  11. 23 W. Younoussa

Bench: M. Dupé, A. Joujou, D. Assoumani, F. Centonze, Louis Leroux, F. Guilbert, I. Ganago, B. Pierret, A. Cherni

Dunkerque lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 73 Moha Airam
  2. 30 Abner
  3. 2 O. Touré
  4. 26 Opa Sanganté
  5. 27 A. Linguet
  6. 18 Théna Massock
  7. 6 J. Morel
  8. 11 E. Prutsev
  9. 10 A. Lebeau
  10. 9 G. Robail
  11. 19 S. Keita

Bench: K. Ayari, S. Nzonzi, M. Prévot, L. Loussilaho, A. Nade, Franck Atoen, A. Daho, M. Niang

Nantes vs Dunkerque head-to-head

Last 1 meetings: Nantes 1 · draws 0 · Dunkerque 0.

NantesDrawsDunkerque
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2024-07-27Nantes2-1DunkerqueFriendlies Clubs

Other Matchday 9 fixtures

Before and after this match