Gareji vs Telavi: model vs market
| Source | Gareji | Draw | Telavi |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 28% | 27% | 45% |
| Market | 26% | 28% | 46% |
| Published | 27% | 28% | 46% |
| Edge | +1% | 0% | -1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.57 vs 1.19.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Gareji vs Telavi odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Telavi, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-16.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gareji | 2.97 | 3.40 | +0.43 |
| Draw | 3.20 | 3.24 | +0.04 |
| Telavi | 2.21 | 1.95 | -0.26 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Gareji and Telavi expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.75
- Attack rating (Gareji / Telavi)
- 0.98 / 1.12
- Defence rating (Gareji / Telavi)
- 1.27 / 0.85
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Gareji vs Telavi score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Gareji goals. Columns: Telavi goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Gareji vs Telavi goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 56%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Gareji vs Telavi
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Gareji | 27% | 3.74 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.63 | |
| Telavi | 46% | 2.19 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52% | 1.93 |
| Under 2.5 | 48% | 2.08 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56% | 1.78 |
| No | 44% | 2.28 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Gareji or draw) | 54% | 1.84 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.38 | |
| X2 (draw or Telavi) | 73% | 1.36 | |
| Handicap -1 | Telavi win by 2+ | 24% | 4.25 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Gareji and Telavi recent form
Gareji
2W 1D 3L
Telavi
1W 3D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Gareji at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 9-3-2
- Win rate
- 64%
- Goals for / match
- 1.57
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 6 of 14
- They have won 14 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 28 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Telavi away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-5-5
- Win rate
- 29%
- Goals for / match
- 1.29
- Goals against / match
- 1.29
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 14
- They have won 12 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 12 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 28 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Gareji at home only, Telavi away only.
Gareji vs Telavi head-to-head
Last 8 meetings: Gareji 1 · draws 5 · Telavi 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-08 | Telavi | 0-0 | Gareji | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
| 2026-05-06 | Gareji | 2-0 | Telavi | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
| 2026-03-07 | Telavi | 0-0 | Gareji | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
| 2025-11-21 | Gareji | 3-3 | Telavi | Erovnuli Liga |
| 2025-09-13 | Telavi | 0-0 | Gareji | Erovnuli Liga |
| 2025-05-16 | Gareji | 0-0 | Telavi | Erovnuli Liga |
| 2025-04-06 | Telavi | 1-0 | Gareji | Erovnuli Liga |
| 2022-08-07 | Gareji | 0-1 | Telavi | David Kipiani Cup |
Other Matchday 29 fixtures
- Merani Martvili vs Shturmi 2026-10-17
- Kolkheti Poti vs Odishi 1919 — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Samtredia v Aragvi Dusheti — match page 2026-10-17
- Sioni vs Gori — team news & stats 2026-10-17
Before and after this match
- Gareji, previous: Odishi 1919 v Gareji analysis
- Telavi, previous: Aragvi Dusheti – Telavi, 2026-10-10
- Telavi, next: Telavi vs Kolkheti Poti prediction