Updated

Erovnuli Liga 2 · Matchday 29

Merani Martvili vs Shturmi

· Stadioni Murtaz Khurtsilava, Martvili

Full time3 – 1

Alin prediction was Shturmi to win

Cmodel only, no market oddsMissed

Predicted score 0 – 1

13% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Merani MartviliDrawShturmi

Merani Martvili vs Shturmi: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceMerani MartviliDrawShturmi
Model19%28%53%
Market———
Published19%28%53%
Edge———
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.55 vs 0.83.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Merani Martvili and Shturmi expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.83Merani Martvili
1.55Shturmi
Total expected goals
2.38
Attack rating (Merani Martvili / Shturmi)
0.78 / 1.07
Defence rating (Merani Martvili / Shturmi)
1.32 / 0.75

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Merani Martvili vs Shturmi score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 10.4% 13.1% 11.1% 5.7% 3.1% 1 6.5% 13.1% 9.2% 4.8% 2.6% 2 3.2% 5.0% 3.8% 2.0% 1.1% 3 0.9% 1.4% 1.1% 0.6% 0.3% 4+ 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1%

Rows: Merani Martvili goals. Columns: Shturmi goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Merani Martvili vs Shturmi goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 90%
Over 1.5 70%
Over 2.5 43%
Over 3.5 22%
Both teams to score
46%
No goals (0–0)
10%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Merani Martvili vs Shturmi

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Merani Martvili19%5.28
Draw28%3.58
Shturmi53%1.88
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.543%2.35
Under 2.557%1.74
Both teams to scoreYes46%2.19
No54%1.84
Double chance1X (Merani Martvili or draw)47%2.13
12 (either side)72%1.39
X2 (draw or Shturmi)81%1.23
Handicap -1Shturmi win by 2+29%3.50
Push (exactly one goal)25%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Merani Martvili and Shturmi recent form

Merani Martvili 2W 0D 4L
Shturmi 4W 1D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Merani Martvili at home

Record (W-D-L)
7-4-3
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
1.21
Goals against / match
0.86
Clean sheets
6 of 14
  • They have won 10 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They have kept 8 clean sheets in 28 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 10 of 28 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 5 of 6 penalties (83%).
  • 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Shturmi away

Record (W-D-L)
3-9-2
Win rate
21%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
0.93
Clean sheets
6 of 14
  • They have won 12 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They have kept 14 clean sheets in 28 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 8 of 28 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Merani Martvili at home only, Shturmi away only.

Merani Martvili vs Shturmi head-to-head

Last 5 meetings: Merani Martvili 1 · draws 3 · Shturmi 1.

Merani MartviliDrawsShturmi
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-08-08Shturmi2-1Merani MartviliErovnuli Liga 2
2026-05-06Merani Martvili0-0ShturmiErovnuli Liga 2
2026-03-07Shturmi0-0Merani MartviliErovnuli Liga 2
2024-12-16Merani Martvili1-1ShturmiErovnuli Liga 2
2024-12-12Shturmi0-1Merani MartviliErovnuli Liga 2

Other Matchday 29 fixtures

Before and after this match