Updated

Erovnuli Liga 2 · Matchday 29

Samtredia vs Aragvi Dusheti

· Erosi Manjgaladze Stadium, Samtredia

Full time0 – 1

Alin prediction was Samtredia to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 3 – 0

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
SamtrediaDrawAragvi Dusheti

Samtredia vs Aragvi Dusheti: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceSamtrediaDrawAragvi Dusheti
Model86%9%5%
Market72%18%10%
Published76%16%9%
Edge+14%-8%-6%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.61 vs 0.86.
  • Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Samtredia below the model: +13.8 percentage points of edge.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Samtredia vs Aragvi Dusheti odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Samtredia, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-16.

Opened 1.27Now 1.27 +0.00
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Samtredia1.271.27+0.00
Draw5.175.17+0.00
Aragvi Dusheti8.958.95+0.00

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Samtredia and Aragvi Dusheti expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

3.61Samtredia
0.86Aragvi Dusheti
Total expected goals
4.46
Attack rating (Samtredia / Aragvi Dusheti)
1.81 / 1.04
Defence rating (Samtredia / Aragvi Dusheti)
0.75 / 1.39

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Samtredia vs Aragvi Dusheti score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 1.5% 0.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 1 3.8% 3.9% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1% 2 7.5% 6.4% 2.8% 0.8% 0.2% 3 9.0% 7.7% 3.3% 0.9% 0.2% 4+ 20.6% 17.7% 7.6% 2.2% 0.6%

Rows: Samtredia goals. Columns: Aragvi Dusheti goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Samtredia vs Aragvi Dusheti goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 98%
Over 1.5 94%
Over 2.5 82%
Over 3.5 65%
Both teams to score
57%
No goals (0–0)
2%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Samtredia vs Aragvi Dusheti

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Samtredia76%1.32
Draw16%6.40
Aragvi Dusheti9%11.32
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.582%1.22
Under 2.518%5.60
Both teams to scoreYes57%1.77
No43%2.30
Double chance1X (Samtredia or draw)91%1.10
12 (either side)84%1.19
X2 (draw or Aragvi Dusheti)24%4.09
Handicap -1Samtredia win by 2+72%1.40
Push (exactly one goal)15%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Samtredia and Aragvi Dusheti recent form

Samtredia 5W 0D 1L
Aragvi Dusheti 1W 1D 4L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Samtredia at home

Record (W-D-L)
8-3-3
Win rate
57%
Goals for / match
2.14
Goals against / match
1.07
Clean sheets
6 of 14
  • They have won 12 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
  • They average 2.1 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
  • They have kept 8 clean sheets in 28 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of 28 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
  • They have converted 8 of 9 penalties (89%).
  • 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Aragvi Dusheti away

Record (W-D-L)
3-4-7
Win rate
21%
Goals for / match
0.79
Goals against / match
1.29
Clean sheets
2 of 14
  • They have won 10 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They average 1.4 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 28 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 8 of 28 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
  • 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Samtredia at home only, Aragvi Dusheti away only.

Samtredia vs Aragvi Dusheti head-to-head

Last 4 meetings: Samtredia 3 · draws 0 · Aragvi Dusheti 1.

SamtrediaDrawsAragvi Dusheti
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-08-08Aragvi Dusheti2-4SamtrediaErovnuli Liga 2
2026-05-06Samtredia2-0Aragvi DushetiErovnuli Liga 2
2026-03-07Aragvi Dusheti2-1SamtrediaErovnuli Liga 2
2024-07-21Aragvi Dusheti0-2SamtrediaDavid Kipiani Cup

Other Matchday 29 fixtures

Before and after this match