Holstein Kiel vs Dynamo Dresden preview
In the match between Holstein Kiel and Dynamo Dresden, the 1X2 probabilities show both teams at 35%, with a draw at 30%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, predicted at 9%. Holstein Kiel's expected goals stand at 1.22, while Dynamo Dresden's is slightly lower at 1.21.
Recent form indicates Holstein Kiel has struggled, with 5 games resulting in 4 losses and 1 draw. Meanwhile, Dynamo Dresden has a mixed record, winning 1, drawing 1, and losing 4 in their last 6 matches. The chance of Over 2.5 goals is 44%, and both teams to score is at 51%. These factors could lead to different outcomes if either team improves their form.
Holstein Kiel vs Dynamo Dresden: model vs market
| Source | Holstein Kiel | Draw | Dynamo Dresden |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 35% | 30% | 35% |
| Market | 41% | 25% | 33% |
| Published | 40% | 27% | 34% |
| Edge | -2% | +1% | 0% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.35, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -6.2% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Holstein Kiel vs Dynamo Dresden odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Holstein Kiel, 9 snapshots since 2026-10-19.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Holstein Kiel | 2.17 | 2.25 | +0.08 |
| Draw | 3.70 | 3.67 | -0.03 |
| Dynamo Dresden | 2.90 | 2.80 | -0.10 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Holstein Kiel and Dynamo Dresden expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.43
- Attack rating (Holstein Kiel / Dynamo Dresden)
- 0.75 / 1.14
- Defence rating (Holstein Kiel / Dynamo Dresden)
- 0.81 / 0.98
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Holstein Kiel vs Dynamo Dresden score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Holstein Kiel goals. Columns: Dynamo Dresden goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Holstein Kiel vs Dynamo Dresden goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 51%
- No goals (0–0)
- 10%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Holstein Kiel vs Dynamo Dresden
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Holstein Kiel | 40% | 2.51 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.77 | |
| Dynamo Dresden | 34% | 2.98 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 44% | 2.28 |
| Under 2.5 | 56% | 1.78 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51% | 1.97 |
| No | 49% | 2.03 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Holstein Kiel or draw) | 66% | 1.51 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.36 | |
| X2 (draw or Dynamo Dresden) | 60% | 1.66 | |
| Handicap -1 | Holstein Kiel win by 2+ | 16% | 6.35 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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Holstein Kiel and Dynamo Dresden recent form
Holstein Kiel
0W 3D 3L
Dynamo Dresden
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Holstein Kiel at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-4-0
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.25
- Goals against / match
- 1.25
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 0 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
Dynamo Dresden away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 2.75
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game on the road against 1.0 at home.
League matches this season before kick-off: Holstein Kiel at home only, Dynamo Dresden away only.
Holstein Kiel vs Dynamo Dresden head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Holstein Kiel 1 · draws 0 · Dynamo Dresden 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-17 | Dynamo Dresden | 2-1 | Holstein Kiel | 2. Bundesliga |
| 2025-12-20 | Holstein Kiel | 2-1 | Dynamo Dresden | 2. Bundesliga |
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
- Bochum vs Wolfsburg 2026-10-23
- Darmstadt vs St. Pauli 2026-10-23
- Hertha BSC v Arminia Bielefeld — match page 2026-10-24
- 1. FC Magdeburg v Karlsruher SC — match page 2026-10-24
- FC Heidenheim vs Energie Cottbus — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- 1. FC Nürnberg vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Eintracht Braunschweig vs Hannover 96 — team news & stats 2026-10-25
- VfL Osnabrück vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2026-10-25
Before and after this match
- Holstein Kiel, previous: Holstein Kiel vs Hertha BSC: odds and pick
- Holstein Kiel, next: Holstein Kiel – Hoffenheim, 2026-10-28
- Dynamo Dresden, previous: Dynamo Dresden – 1. FC Magdeburg, 2026-10-18
- Dynamo Dresden, next: Dynamo Dresden vs FC Schalke 04: odds and pick