1. FC Nürnberg vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern preview
In the 2. Bundesliga fixture between 1. FC Nürnberg and 1. FC Kaiserslautern, the 1X2 probabilities show 1. FC Nürnberg at 41%, a draw at 32%, and 1. FC Kaiserslautern at 27%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 13% chance. Expected goals suggest 1. FC Nürnberg will score 1.19 while 1. FC Kaiserslautern is expected to net 0.93.
While both teams to score has a probability of 43%, the recent form indicates 1. FC Nürnberg has drawn twice and won three of their last six matches, while 1. FC Kaiserslautern has won four out of six. If 1. FC Kaiserslautern can improve their scoring efficiency, the match could see a different outcome than predicted.
1. FC Nürnberg vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern: model vs market
| Source | 1. FC Nürnberg | Draw | 1. FC Kaiserslautern |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 41% | 32% | 27% |
| Market | 48% | 25% | 28% |
| Published | 46% | 27% | 27% |
| Edge | -2% | +2% | 0% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.04, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -6.3% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
1. FC Nürnberg vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern odds movement
Median bookmaker price on 1. FC Nürnberg, 10 snapshots since 2026-10-18.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. FC Nürnberg | 1.87 | 1.95 | +0.08 |
| Draw | 3.85 | 3.75 | -0.10 |
| 1. FC Kaiserslautern | 3.73 | 3.35 | -0.38 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
1. FC Nürnberg and 1. FC Kaiserslautern expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.12
- Attack rating (1. FC Nürnberg / 1. FC Kaiserslautern)
- 1.36 / 0.75
- Defence rating (1. FC Nürnberg / 1. FC Kaiserslautern)
- 0.95 / 0.53
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
1. FC Nürnberg vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: 1. FC Nürnberg goals. Columns: 1. FC Kaiserslautern goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
1. FC Nürnberg vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 43%
- No goals (0–0)
- 13%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for 1. FC Nürnberg vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | 1. FC Nürnberg | 46% | 2.18 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.76 | |
| 1. FC Kaiserslautern | 27% | 3.64 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 36% | 2.81 |
| Under 2.5 | 64% | 1.55 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 43% | 2.31 |
| No | 57% | 1.77 | |
| Double chance | 1X (1. FC Nürnberg or draw) | 73% | 1.38 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.36 | |
| X2 (draw or 1. FC Kaiserslautern) | 54% | 1.85 | |
| Handicap -1 | 1. FC Nürnberg win by 2+ | 18% | 5.45 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
1. FC Nürnberg and 1. FC Kaiserslautern recent form
1. FC Nürnberg
3W 3D 0L
1. FC Kaiserslautern
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
1. FC Nürnberg at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-0
- Win rate
- 75%
- Goals for / match
- 3.25
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 5 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.9 goals per match.
- They average 3.2 goals per game at home against 2.3 on the road.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
1. FC Kaiserslautern away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-1
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 0.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 7 matches.
- 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: 1. FC Nürnberg at home only, 1. FC Kaiserslautern away only.
1. FC Nürnberg vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: 1. FC Nürnberg 1 · draws 1 · 1. FC Kaiserslautern 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-21 | 1. FC Nürnberg | 3-0 | 1. FC Kaiserslautern | 2. Bundesliga |
| 2025-10-26 | 1. FC Kaiserslautern | 1-1 | 1. FC Nürnberg | 2. Bundesliga |
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
- Bochum vs Wolfsburg 2026-10-23
- Darmstadt vs St. Pauli 2026-10-23
- Hertha BSC v Arminia Bielefeld — match page 2026-10-24
- 1. FC Magdeburg v Karlsruher SC — match page 2026-10-24
- FC Heidenheim vs Energie Cottbus — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Holstein Kiel v Dynamo Dresden — match page 2026-10-25
- Eintracht Braunschweig vs Hannover 96 — team news & stats 2026-10-25
- VfL Osnabrück vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2026-10-25
Before and after this match
- 1. FC Nürnberg, previous: Energie Cottbus v 1. FC Nürnberg analysis
- 1. FC Nürnberg, next: Bayer Leverkusen vs 1. FC Nürnberg prediction
- 1. FC Kaiserslautern, previous: 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs Bochum prediction
- 1. FC Kaiserslautern, next: Hannover 96 vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern: odds and pick