Hertha BSC vs Arminia Bielefeld preview
In the upcoming match between Hertha BSC and Arminia Bielefeld, the 1X2 probabilities show Hertha BSC at 55% to win, while Arminia Bielefeld stands at 22%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which aligns with expected goals of 2.09 for Hertha BSC and 1.28 for Arminia Bielefeld.
However, recent form indicates that Hertha BSC has been strong with 5 wins and a draw in their last 6 matches, while Arminia Bielefeld has struggled, recording just 1 win in their last 6. Both teams to score is at 64%, and Over 2.5 goals is at 65%, which suggests a high-scoring game could be possible. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating some uncertainty in the outcome.
Hertha BSC vs Arminia Bielefeld: model vs market
| Source | Hertha BSC | Draw | Arminia Bielefeld |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 54% | 23% | 23% |
| Market | 52% | 24% | 24% |
| Published | 53% | 24% | 24% |
| Edge | 0% | 0% | 0% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.03 vs 1.29.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.88, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -1.0% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Hertha BSC vs Arminia Bielefeld odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Hertha BSC, 11 snapshots since 2026-10-18.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hertha BSC | 1.87 | 1.78 | -0.09 |
| Draw | 3.80 | 3.92 | +0.12 |
| Arminia Bielefeld | 3.43 | 3.90 | +0.46 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Hertha BSC and Arminia Bielefeld expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.32
- Attack rating (Hertha BSC / Arminia Bielefeld)
- 1.15 / 1.15
- Defence rating (Hertha BSC / Arminia Bielefeld)
- 0.86 / 1.07
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Hertha BSC vs Arminia Bielefeld score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Hertha BSC goals. Columns: Arminia Bielefeld goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Hertha BSC vs Arminia Bielefeld goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 64%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Hertha BSC vs Arminia Bielefeld
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Hertha BSC | 53% | 1.90 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.23 | |
| Arminia Bielefeld | 24% | 4.22 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65% | 1.55 |
| Under 2.5 | 35% | 2.82 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64% | 1.56 |
| No | 36% | 2.78 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Hertha BSC or draw) | 76% | 1.31 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.31 | |
| X2 (draw or Arminia Bielefeld) | 47% | 2.11 | |
| Handicap -1 | Hertha BSC win by 2+ | 32% | 3.09 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Hertha BSC and Arminia Bielefeld recent form
Hertha BSC
5W 1D 0L
Arminia Bielefeld
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Hertha BSC at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 2.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 7 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 7 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Arminia Bielefeld away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-3
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Hertha BSC at home only, Arminia Bielefeld away only.
Hertha BSC vs Arminia Bielefeld head-to-head
Last 8 meetings: Hertha BSC 2 · draws 4 · Arminia Bielefeld 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-17 | Arminia Bielefeld | 6-1 | Hertha BSC | 2. Bundesliga |
| 2025-12-19 | Hertha BSC | 1-1 | Arminia Bielefeld | 2. Bundesliga |
| 2022-04-30 | Arminia Bielefeld | 1-1 | Hertha BSC | Bundesliga |
| 2021-12-11 | Hertha BSC | 2-0 | Arminia Bielefeld | Bundesliga |
| 2021-05-09 | Hertha BSC | 0-0 | Arminia Bielefeld | Bundesliga |
| 2021-01-10 | Arminia Bielefeld | 1-0 | Hertha BSC | Bundesliga |
| 2015-08-10 | Arminia Bielefeld | 0-2 | Hertha BSC | DFB Pokal |
| 2014-10-28 | Arminia Bielefeld | 0-0 | Hertha BSC | DFB Pokal |
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
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- 1. FC Magdeburg v Karlsruher SC — match page 2026-10-24
- FC Heidenheim vs Energie Cottbus — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- 1. FC Nürnberg vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Holstein Kiel v Dynamo Dresden — match page 2026-10-25
- Eintracht Braunschweig vs Hannover 96 — team news & stats 2026-10-25
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Before and after this match
- Hertha BSC, previous: Holstein Kiel vs Hertha BSC: odds and pick
- Hertha BSC, next: SSV Jeddeloh – Hertha BSC, 2026-10-28
- Arminia Bielefeld, previous: Arminia Bielefeld v VfL Osnabrück analysis