Bochum vs Wolfsburg preview
In the upcoming match between Bochum and Wolfsburg, the 1X2 probabilities show Bochum at 34%, a draw at 25%, and Wolfsburg leading at 41%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-2, which has a 9% chance of occurring.
Both teams have shown mixed recent form, with Bochum recording L-L-D-W-L-W and Wolfsburg at D-W-L-D-W-D. The expected goals indicate Bochum at 1.55 and Wolfsburg at 1.70. With a high 63% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 66% chance for both teams to score, the potential for a high-scoring match is evident, but inconsistencies in form could impact these outcomes.
Why this pick: Bochum vs Wolfsburg
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Bochum 10, Wolfsburg 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Bochum vs Wolfsburg: model vs market
| Source | Bochum | Draw | Wolfsburg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 28% | 26% | 47% |
| Market | 31% | 25% | 45% |
| Published | 30% | 25% | 45% |
| Edge | -1% | 0% | +1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.74 vs 1.30.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.15, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -3.0% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Bochum vs Wolfsburg odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Wolfsburg, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-17.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bochum | 2.66 | 3.04 | +0.38 |
| Draw | 3.60 | 3.80 | +0.20 |
| Wolfsburg | 2.22 | 2.10 | -0.12 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Bochum and Wolfsburg expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.05
- Attack rating (Bochum / Wolfsburg)
- 0.72 / 1.56
- Defence rating (Bochum / Wolfsburg)
- 0.86 / 1.10
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Bochum vs Wolfsburg score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Bochum goals. Columns: Wolfsburg goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Bochum vs Wolfsburg goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 61%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Bochum vs Wolfsburg
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Bochum | 30% | 3.33 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.02 | |
| Wolfsburg | 45% | 2.22 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59% | 1.70 |
| Under 2.5 | 41% | 2.42 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61% | 1.63 |
| No | 39% | 2.58 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Bochum or draw) | 55% | 1.82 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or Wolfsburg) | 70% | 1.43 | |
| Handicap -1 | Wolfsburg win by 2+ | 26% | 3.88 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Bochum and Wolfsburg recent form
Bochum
1W 1D 4L
Wolfsburg
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Bochum at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-3
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.25
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
- They average 1.0 goals per game on the road against 0.2 at home.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 8 matches.
Wolfsburg away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 2.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.75
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.8 goals per match.
- They average 3.0 goals per game at home against 2.5 on the road.
- 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Bochum at home only, Wolfsburg away only.
Bochum vs Wolfsburg head-to-head
Last 8 meetings: Bochum 2 · draws 1 · Wolfsburg 5.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-22 | Wolfsburg | 1-1 | Bochum | Bundesliga |
| 2024-10-05 | Bochum | 1-3 | Wolfsburg | Bundesliga |
| 2024-04-20 | Wolfsburg | 1-0 | Bochum | Bundesliga |
| 2023-12-02 | Bochum | 3-1 | Wolfsburg | Bundesliga |
| 2023-04-22 | Bochum | 1-5 | Wolfsburg | Bundesliga |
| 2022-10-29 | Wolfsburg | 4-0 | Bochum | Bundesliga |
| 2022-01-09 | Bochum | 1-0 | Wolfsburg | Bundesliga |
| 2021-08-14 | Wolfsburg | 1-0 | Bochum | Bundesliga |
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
- Darmstadt vs St. Pauli 2026-10-23
- Hertha BSC v Arminia Bielefeld — match page 2026-10-24
- 1. FC Magdeburg v Karlsruher SC — match page 2026-10-24
- FC Heidenheim vs Energie Cottbus — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- 1. FC Nürnberg vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Holstein Kiel v Dynamo Dresden — match page 2026-10-25
- Eintracht Braunschweig vs Hannover 96 — team news & stats 2026-10-25
- VfL Osnabrück vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2026-10-25
Before and after this match
- Bochum, previous: 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs Bochum prediction
- Bochum, next: Bochum v Mainz 05 analysis
- Wolfsburg, previous: Wolfsburg v FC Heidenheim analysis
- Wolfsburg, next: Freiburg vs Wolfsburg prediction