VfL Osnabrück vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth preview
VfL Osnabrück faces SpVgg Greuther Fürth with a 38% chance of winning compared to 35% for the visitors, making it a tight contest. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which has a 9% probability. Both teams to score stands at 62%, indicating a strong chance for goals from both sides.
However, the recent form shows VfL Osnabrück with two wins in their last six matches, while SpVgg Greuther Fürth has won three out of six. This could impact the expected goals, which are 1.55 for VfL Osnabrück and 1.48 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth. A draw is also a possibility with a 26% probability in the 1X2 market.
VfL Osnabrück vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth: model vs market
| Source | VfL Osnabrück | Draw | SpVgg Greuther Fürth |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 38% | 26% | 35% |
| Market | 42% | 26% | 32% |
| Published | 41% | 26% | 33% |
| Edge | -1% | 0% | +1% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.30, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -5.7% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
VfL Osnabrück vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth odds movement
Median bookmaker price on VfL Osnabrück, 9 snapshots since 2026-10-19.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| VfL Osnabrück | 2.21 | 2.23 | +0.02 |
| Draw | 3.60 | 3.61 | +0.01 |
| SpVgg Greuther Fürth | 2.85 | 2.88 | +0.03 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
VfL Osnabrück and SpVgg Greuther Fürth expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.03
- Attack rating (VfL Osnabrück / SpVgg Greuther Fürth)
- 1.00 / 0.97
- Defence rating (VfL Osnabrück / SpVgg Greuther Fürth)
- 1.18 / 0.94
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
VfL Osnabrück vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: VfL Osnabrück goals. Columns: SpVgg Greuther Fürth goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
VfL Osnabrück vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 62%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for VfL Osnabrück vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | VfL Osnabrück | 41% | 2.44 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.85 | |
| SpVgg Greuther Fürth | 33% | 3.03 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58% | 1.71 |
| Under 2.5 | 42% | 2.40 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62% | 1.61 |
| No | 38% | 2.63 | |
| Double chance | 1X (VfL Osnabrück or draw) | 67% | 1.49 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| X2 (draw or SpVgg Greuther Fürth) | 59% | 1.69 | |
| Handicap -1 | VfL Osnabrück win by 2+ | 19% | 5.14 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
VfL Osnabrück and SpVgg Greuther Fürth recent form
VfL Osnabrück
1W 2D 3L
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
VfL Osnabrück at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-2
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.25
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-1
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.75
- Goals against / match
- 1.75
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game on the road against 1.0 at home.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
League matches this season before kick-off: VfL Osnabrück at home only, SpVgg Greuther Fürth away only.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
- Bochum vs Wolfsburg 2026-10-23
- Darmstadt vs St. Pauli 2026-10-23
- Hertha BSC v Arminia Bielefeld — match page 2026-10-24
- 1. FC Magdeburg v Karlsruher SC — match page 2026-10-24
- FC Heidenheim vs Energie Cottbus — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- 1. FC Nürnberg vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Holstein Kiel v Dynamo Dresden — match page 2026-10-25
- Eintracht Braunschweig vs Hannover 96 — team news & stats 2026-10-25
Before and after this match
- VfL Osnabrück, previous: Arminia Bielefeld v VfL Osnabrück analysis
- SpVgg Greuther Fürth, previous: SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Eintracht Braunschweig prediction