Darmstadt vs St. Pauli Prediction & Betting Tips 23/10/2026

Darmstadt vs St. Pauli preview

In the 2. Bundesliga fixture between Darmstadt and St. Pauli, the 1X2 probabilities show St. Pauli at 41% to win, while Darmstadt is at 34%. Our model predicts a likely scoreline of 1-2, which occurs with an 8% chance. The expected goals for Darmstadt are 1.45, compared to St. Pauli's 1.38, suggesting a close match.

The likelihood of Over 2.5 goals is 54%, and both teams to score stands at 59%. However, Darmstadt's recent form shows inconsistency with three wins in their last six matches, while St. Pauli has two wins in their last six. This could impact the match outcome and the scoring trends.

Why this pick: Darmstadt vs St. Pauli

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Darmstadt 10, St. Pauli 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

DarmstadtSt. Pauli

0.72 xG per 90 1.50

0.72 npxG per 90 1.50

16.9 PPDA 16.9

5.8 Deep completions per 90 5.0

0.55 xPTS per 90 0.78

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Darmstadt vs St. Pauli: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Darmstadt	Draw	St. Pauli
Model	32%	28%	40%
Market	31%	27%	43%
Published	31%	27%	42%
Edge	0%	0%	-1%

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.22, recorded 2026-10-22 — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -6.8% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).

Darmstadt vs St. Pauli odds movement

Median bookmaker price on St. Pauli, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-17.

Opened 2.12Now 2.19 +0.06

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
Darmstadt	2.79	3.01	+0.22
Draw	3.75	3.49	-0.26
St. Pauli	2.12	2.19	+0.06

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Darmstadt and St. Pauli expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.31Darmstadt

1.49St. Pauli

Total expected goals: 2.80
Attack rating (Darmstadt / St. Pauli): 0.82 / 0.82
Defence rating (Darmstadt / St. Pauli): 1.39 / 0.97

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Darmstadt vs St. Pauli score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 7.3% 7.9% 6.8% 3.4% 1.7% 1 6.8% 13.1% 8.8% 4.4% 2.3% 2 5.2% 7.8% 5.8% 2.9% 1.5% 3 2.3% 3.4% 2.5% 1.3% 0.7% 4+ 1.0% 1.5% 1.1% 0.5% 0.3%

Rows: Darmstadt goals. Columns: St. Pauli goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Darmstadt vs St. Pauli goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 93%

Over 1.5 78%

Over 2.5 53%

Over 3.5 31%

Both teams to score: 58%
No goals (0–0): 7%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Darmstadt vs St. Pauli

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Darmstadt	31%	3.21
	Draw	27%	3.72
	St. Pauli	42%	2.38
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	53%	1.89
	Under 2.5	47%	2.13
Both teams to score	Yes	58%	1.73
	No	42%	2.37
Double chance	1X (Darmstadt or draw)	58%	1.72
	12 (either side)	73%	1.37
	X2 (draw or St. Pauli)	69%	1.45
Handicap -1	St. Pauli win by 2+	20%	4.94
	Push (exactly one goal)	20%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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Darmstadt and St. Pauli recent form

Darmstadt 2W 0D 4L

St. Pauli 2W 3D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Darmstadt at home

Record (W-D-L): 2-1-1
Win rate: 50%
Goals for / match: 1.75
Goals against / match: 1.25
Clean sheets: 0 of 4

They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.2 on the road.
They have failed to score in 4 of 8 matches.

St. Pauli away

Record (W-D-L): 0-4-0
Win rate: 0%
Goals for / match: 1.50
Goals against / match: 1.50
Clean sheets: 0 of 4

They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.

League matches this season before kick-off: Darmstadt at home only, St. Pauli away only.

Darmstadt vs St. Pauli head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Darmstadt 5 · draws 2 · St. Pauli 3.

50% 20% 30%

DarmstadtDrawsSt. Pauli

Previous meetings
Date	Home	Score	Away	Competition
2023-05-06	Darmstadt	0-3	St. Pauli	2. Bundesliga
2022-10-29	St. Pauli	1-1	Darmstadt	2. Bundesliga
2022-04-23	St. Pauli	1-2	Darmstadt	2. Bundesliga
2021-11-20	Darmstadt	4-0	St. Pauli	2. Bundesliga
2021-02-20	St. Pauli	3-2	Darmstadt	2. Bundesliga
2020-10-24	Darmstadt	2-2	St. Pauli	2. Bundesliga
2020-05-23	Darmstadt	4-0	St. Pauli	2. Bundesliga
2019-10-19	St. Pauli	0-1	Darmstadt	2. Bundesliga
2019-01-29	Darmstadt	2-1	St. Pauli	2. Bundesliga
2018-08-10	St. Pauli	2-0	Darmstadt	2. Bundesliga

Other Matchday 9 fixtures

Bochum vs Wolfsburg 2026-10-23
Hertha BSC v Arminia Bielefeld — match page 2026-10-24
1. FC Magdeburg v Karlsruher SC — match page 2026-10-24
FC Heidenheim vs Energie Cottbus — team news & stats 2026-10-24
1. FC Nürnberg vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern — team news & stats 2026-10-24
Holstein Kiel v Dynamo Dresden — match page 2026-10-25
Eintracht Braunschweig vs Hannover 96 — team news & stats 2026-10-25
VfL Osnabrück vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2026-10-25

Before and after this match

Darmstadt, previous: Karlsruher SC – Darmstadt, 2026-10-18
Darmstadt, next: SV Elversberg v Darmstadt analysis
St. Pauli, previous: Hannover 96 vs St. Pauli: odds and pick

Prediction snapshot St. Pauli to win Predicted score 1 – 2 C Bet on St. Pauli