FC Heidenheim vs Energie Cottbus preview
In the upcoming match between FC Heidenheim and Energie Cottbus, the 1X2 probabilities show FC Heidenheim at 46%, Energie Cottbus at 32%, and a draw at 22%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 2-1, with an 8% chance. The model indicates a strong possibility of Over 2.5 goals at 76% and both teams to score at 75%.
FC Heidenheim's expected goals stand at 2.17 compared to Energie Cottbus's 1.80. However, the recent form reveals FC Heidenheim's last five matches include two draws and three wins, while Energie Cottbus has two draws and three losses. This inconsistency in form could impact the outcome, making it important to consider how both teams perform on the day.
FC Heidenheim vs Energie Cottbus: model vs market
| Source | FC Heidenheim | Draw | Energie Cottbus |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 47% | 22% | 31% |
| Market | 56% | 21% | 24% |
| Published | 53% | 21% | 26% |
| Edge | -2% | 0% | +2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.18 vs 1.79.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.73, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -7.8% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
FC Heidenheim vs Energie Cottbus odds movement
Median bookmaker price on FC Heidenheim, 11 snapshots since 2026-10-18.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Heidenheim | 1.66 | 1.69 | +0.03 |
| Draw | 4.51 | 4.50 | -0.01 |
| Energie Cottbus | 4.08 | 3.96 | -0.12 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
FC Heidenheim and Energie Cottbus expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.97
- Attack rating (FC Heidenheim / Energie Cottbus)
- 1.13 / 1.13
- Defence rating (FC Heidenheim / Energie Cottbus)
- 1.21 / 1.17
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
FC Heidenheim vs Energie Cottbus score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: FC Heidenheim goals. Columns: Energie Cottbus goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
FC Heidenheim vs Energie Cottbus goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 75%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for FC Heidenheim vs Energie Cottbus
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Heidenheim | 53% | 1.88 |
| Draw | 21% | 4.74 | |
| Energie Cottbus | 26% | 3.91 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 76% | 1.32 |
| Under 2.5 | 24% | 4.11 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 75% | 1.34 |
| No | 25% | 3.93 | |
| Double chance | 1X (FC Heidenheim or draw) | 74% | 1.34 |
| 12 (either side) | 79% | 1.27 | |
| X2 (draw or Energie Cottbus) | 47% | 2.14 | |
| Handicap -1 | FC Heidenheim win by 2+ | 28% | 3.59 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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FC Heidenheim and Energie Cottbus recent form
FC Heidenheim
3W 2D 1L
Energie Cottbus
1W 3D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
FC Heidenheim at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-0
- Win rate
- 75%
- Goals for / match
- 2.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They average 2.5 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Energie Cottbus away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-2
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.50
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- 47% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: FC Heidenheim at home only, Energie Cottbus away only.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
- Bochum vs Wolfsburg 2026-10-23
- Darmstadt vs St. Pauli 2026-10-23
- Hertha BSC v Arminia Bielefeld — match page 2026-10-24
- 1. FC Magdeburg v Karlsruher SC — match page 2026-10-24
- 1. FC Nürnberg vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Holstein Kiel v Dynamo Dresden — match page 2026-10-25
- Eintracht Braunschweig vs Hannover 96 — team news & stats 2026-10-25
- VfL Osnabrück vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2026-10-25
Before and after this match
- FC Heidenheim, previous: Wolfsburg v FC Heidenheim analysis
- Energie Cottbus, previous: Energie Cottbus v 1. FC Nürnberg analysis