Berekum Chelsea vs Samartex preview
In the Ghana Premier League fixture, Berekum Chelsea faces Samartex with a 64% probability of winning compared to Samartex's 12%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which aligns with expected goals of 1.83 for Berekum Chelsea and 0.66 for Samartex.
While Berekum Chelsea has shown some recent form with three wins in their last six matches, they have not won against Samartex in their last two encounters, recording one draw and one loss. The model suggests a 45% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 41% chance for both teams to score, indicating that while Berekum Chelsea is favored, the match could still present surprises.
Berekum Chelsea vs Samartex: model vs market
| Source | Berekum Chelsea | Draw | Samartex |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 64% | 24% | 12% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 64% | 24% | 12% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.83 vs 0.66.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Berekum Chelsea and Samartex expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.48
- Attack rating (Berekum Chelsea / Samartex)
- 1.38 / 1.06
- Defence rating (Berekum Chelsea / Samartex)
- 0.94 / 0.96
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Berekum Chelsea vs Samartex score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Berekum Chelsea goals. Columns: Samartex goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Berekum Chelsea vs Samartex goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 41%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Berekum Chelsea vs Samartex
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Berekum Chelsea | 64% | 1.55 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.21 | |
| Samartex | 12% | 8.53 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 45% | 2.21 |
| Under 2.5 | 55% | 1.83 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 41% | 2.42 |
| No | 59% | 1.71 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Berekum Chelsea or draw) | 88% | 1.13 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.31 | |
| X2 (draw or Samartex) | 36% | 2.82 | |
| Handicap -1 | Berekum Chelsea win by 2+ | 39% | 2.56 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Berekum Chelsea and Samartex recent form
Berekum Chelsea
3W 1D 2L
Samartex
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Berekum Chelsea at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-0
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 2.33
- Goals against / match
- 0.67
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
Samartex away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-1
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 0.67
- Goals against / match
- 0.67
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
League matches this season before kick-off: Berekum Chelsea at home only, Samartex away only.
Berekum Chelsea vs Samartex head-to-head
Last 8 meetings: Berekum Chelsea 2 · draws 3 · Samartex 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-12 | Samartex | 1-0 | Berekum Chelsea | Ghana Premier League |
| 2025-11-30 | Berekum Chelsea | 0-0 | Samartex | Ghana Premier League |
| 2025-03-23 | Berekum Chelsea | 0-0 | Samartex | Premier League |
| 2024-10-27 | Samartex | 1-0 | Berekum Chelsea | Premier League |
| 2024-04-14 | Samartex | 3-2 | Berekum Chelsea | Premier League |
| 2023-11-05 | Berekum Chelsea | 1-0 | Samartex | Premier League |
| 2023-03-01 | Berekum Chelsea | 1-0 | Samartex | Premier League |
| 2022-09-19 | Samartex | 1-1 | Berekum Chelsea | Premier League |
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
- Hearts of Oak vs Basake Holy Stars — team news & stats 2026-10-23
- Dreams v Vision — match page 2026-10-25
- Ashanti Gold vs Asante Kotoko — team news & stats 2026-10-25
- Bechem United vs Debibi United 2026-10-25
- Karela vs Port City 2026-10-25
- Medeama v Aduana Stars — match page 2026-10-25
- Bibiani Gold Stars vs Heart of Lions — team news & stats 2026-10-25
- Young Apostles vs Swedru All Blacks 2026-10-25
Before and after this match
- Berekum Chelsea, previous: Heart of Lions v Berekum Chelsea analysis
- Samartex, previous: Samartex vs Medeama: odds and pick