Aduana Stars vs Berekum Chelsea preview
Aduana Stars face Berekum Chelsea with a 46% chance of winning compared to Chelsea's 22%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, predicted at 16%. Aduana Stars have a stronger expected goals figure of 1.19 versus Chelsea's 0.74, suggesting they create more scoring opportunities.
However, the confidence grade is C, indicating uncertainty. Both teams to score stands at 38%, and Over 2.5 goals is only 30%. This means a low-scoring match is possible, and if Berekum Chelsea improves their attacking play, they could challenge Aduana Stars more effectively.
Aduana Stars vs Berekum Chelsea: model vs market
| Source | Aduana Stars | Draw | Berekum Chelsea |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 41% | 36% | 23% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 41% | 36% | 23% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.02 vs 0.69.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Aduana Stars and Berekum Chelsea expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 1.71
- Attack rating (Aduana Stars / Berekum Chelsea)
- 0.85 / 1.22
- Defence rating (Aduana Stars / Berekum Chelsea)
- 0.84 / 0.87
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Aduana Stars vs Berekum Chelsea score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Aduana Stars goals. Columns: Berekum Chelsea goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Aduana Stars vs Berekum Chelsea goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 33%
- No goals (0–0)
- 19%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Aduana Stars vs Berekum Chelsea
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Aduana Stars | 41% | 2.43 |
| Draw | 36% | 2.79 | |
| Berekum Chelsea | 23% | 4.33 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 25% | 4.07 |
| Under 2.5 | 75% | 1.33 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 33% | 3.01 |
| No | 67% | 1.50 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Aduana Stars or draw) | 77% | 1.30 |
| 12 (either side) | 64% | 1.56 | |
| X2 (draw or Berekum Chelsea) | 59% | 1.70 | |
| Handicap -1 | Aduana Stars win by 2+ | 17% | 5.99 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Aduana Stars and Berekum Chelsea recent form
Aduana Stars
4W 0D 2L
Berekum Chelsea
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Aduana Stars at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-1
- Win rate
- 75%
- Goals for / match
- 1.25
- Goals against / match
- 0.75
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Berekum Chelsea away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-3
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 0.75
- Goals against / match
- 1.75
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
League matches this season before kick-off: Aduana Stars at home only, Berekum Chelsea away only.
Aduana Stars vs Berekum Chelsea head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Aduana Stars 1 · draws 0 · Berekum Chelsea 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-05 | Berekum Chelsea | 1-0 | Aduana Stars | Ghana Premier League |
| 2025-11-23 | Aduana Stars | 3-1 | Berekum Chelsea | Ghana Premier League |
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
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- Samartex v Bibiani Gold Stars — match page 2026-11-01
- Debibi United vs Hearts of Oak — team news & stats 2026-11-01
- Basake Holy Stars v Dreams — match page 2026-11-01
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Before and after this match
- Aduana Stars, previous: Medeama vs Aduana Stars: odds and pick
- Berekum Chelsea, previous: Berekum Chelsea vs Samartex prediction