Updated

Ghana Premier League · Matchday 9

Swedru All Blacks vs Ashanti Gold

· Swedru Stadium, Agona Swedru

Alin prediction Swedru All Blacks to win

Cmodel only, no market odds

Predicted score 1 – 0

17% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Swedru All BlacksDrawAshanti Gold
  • WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.66 vs 0.58.
  • RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Bet on Swedru All Blacks

Swedru All Blacks vs Ashanti Gold preview

Swedru All Blacks face Ashanti Gold with a 63% probability of winning compared to Ashanti Gold's 12%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which aligns with Swedru's expected goals of 1.66 against Ashanti Gold's 0.58. This suggests a strong advantage for Swedru All Blacks.

However, the confidence grade is C, indicating some uncertainty. Both teams to score has a 37% chance, and Over 2.5 goals is at 39%. If Ashanti Gold improves their scoring, they could disrupt the expected outcome.

Swedru All Blacks vs Ashanti Gold: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceSwedru All BlacksDrawAshanti Gold
Model63%26%12%
Market———
Published63%26%12%
Edge———
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.66 vs 0.58.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Swedru All Blacks and Ashanti Gold expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.66Swedru All Blacks
0.58Ashanti Gold
Total expected goals
2.24
Attack rating (Swedru All Blacks / Ashanti Gold)
1.12 / 1.10
Defence rating (Swedru All Blacks / Ashanti Gold)
0.80 / 1.07

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Swedru All Blacks vs Ashanti Gold score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 11.7% 5.2% 1.8% 0.3% 0.1% 1 16.6% 11.3% 3.0% 0.6% 0.1% 2 14.6% 8.5% 2.5% 0.5% 0.1% 3 8.1% 4.7% 1.4% 0.3% 0.0% 4+ 4.9% 2.8% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0%

Rows: Swedru All Blacks goals. Columns: Ashanti Gold goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Swedru All Blacks vs Ashanti Gold goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 88%
Over 1.5 66%
Over 2.5 39%
Over 3.5 19%
Both teams to score
37%
No goals (0–0)
12%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Swedru All Blacks vs Ashanti Gold

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Swedru All Blacks63%1.60
Draw26%3.88
Ashanti Gold12%8.59
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.539%2.58
Under 2.561%1.63
Both teams to scoreYes37%2.72
No63%1.58
Double chance1X (Swedru All Blacks or draw)88%1.13
12 (either side)74%1.35
X2 (draw or Ashanti Gold)37%2.68
Handicap -1Swedru All Blacks win by 2+36%2.78
Push (exactly one goal)27%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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Swedru All Blacks and Ashanti Gold recent form

Swedru All Blacks 3W 2D 1L
Ashanti Gold 3W 0D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Swedru All Blacks at home

Record (W-D-L)
3-1-0
Win rate
75%
Goals for / match
1.25
Goals against / match
0.25
Clean sheets
3 of 4
  • They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
  • They average 1.2 goals per game at home against 0.3 on the road.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 7 matches.

Ashanti Gold away

Record (W-D-L)
0-1-3
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.75
Goals against / match
1.50
Clean sheets
0 of 4
  • They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.

League matches this season before kick-off: Swedru All Blacks at home only, Ashanti Gold away only.

Other Matchday 9 fixtures

Before and after this match

Prediction snapshot Swedru All Blacks to win Predicted score 1 – 0 C Bet on Swedru All Blacks
Our pick: Swedru All Blacks to win 18+ Bet Now