Updated

Ghana Premier League · Matchday 9

Vision vs Port City

· Nii Adjei Kraku II Sports Complex, Tema

Alin prediction Vision to win

Cmodel only, no market odds

Predicted score 1 – 0

13% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
VisionDrawPort City
  • WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.41 vs 0.87.
  • RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.

Vision vs Port City preview

In the Ghana Premier League fixture between Vision and Port City, the 1X2 probabilities show Vision at 48%, while Port City sits at 22%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-0, with a 13% chance. Vision's expected goals are 1.41, compared to Port City's 0.87.

Vision's recent form includes three draws and three losses, while Port City has two wins and one draw in their last five matches. This could impact the outcome, as Port City's recent improvement may challenge Vision's performance. Additionally, the chances for Over 2.5 goals are at 40%, and both teams to score stands at 45%, indicating a possibility for a more open game than expected.

Vision vs Port City: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceVisionDrawPort City
Model48%30%22%
Market———
Published48%30%22%
Edge———
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.41 vs 0.87.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Vision and Port City expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.41Vision
0.87Port City
Total expected goals
2.28
Attack rating (Vision / Port City)
1.11 / 1.12
Defence rating (Vision / Port City)
1.17 / 0.91

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Vision vs Port City score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 11.5% 7.6% 3.8% 1.1% 0.3% 1 13.2% 13.8% 5.4% 1.6% 0.4% 2 10.2% 8.8% 3.8% 1.1% 0.3% 3 4.8% 4.2% 1.8% 0.5% 0.1% 4+ 2.3% 2.0% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1%

Rows: Vision goals. Columns: Port City goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Vision vs Port City goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 88%
Over 1.5 68%
Over 2.5 40%
Over 3.5 20%
Both teams to score
45%
No goals (0–0)
12%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Vision vs Port City

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Vision48%2.06
Draw30%3.37
Port City22%4.58
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.540%2.52
Under 2.560%1.66
Both teams to scoreYes45%2.22
No55%1.82
Double chance1X (Vision or draw)78%1.28
12 (either side)70%1.42
X2 (draw or Port City)52%1.94
Handicap -1Vision win by 2+24%4.10
Push (exactly one goal)24%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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Vision and Port City recent form

Vision 0W 3D 3L
Port City 3W 1D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Vision at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-2-1
Win rate
25%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
0.50
Clean sheets
2 of 4
  • They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.

Port City away

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-2
Win rate
33%
Goals for / match
0.67
Goals against / match
0.67
Clean sheets
1 of 3
  • They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.

League matches this season before kick-off: Vision at home only, Port City away only.

Other Matchday 9 fixtures

Before and after this match

Prediction snapshot Vision to win Predicted score 1 – 0 C Bet on Vision