Karela vs Vision preview
Karela faces Vision with a 41% probability of winning compared to Vision's 26%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which occurs 14% of the time in our model. Karela's expected goals stand at 1.14, while Vision has 0.87.
While Karela has a slight edge, the recent form shows Karela with two wins in their last six matches, and Vision has drawn three of their last six. Both teams to score is at 41%, and Over 2.5 goals is at 33%. This suggests that while Karela may have the upper hand, Vision's ability to secure a draw could challenge the expected outcome.
Karela vs Vision: model vs market
| Source | Karela | Draw | Vision |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 41% | 33% | 26% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 41% | 33% | 26% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Karela and Vision expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.01
- Attack rating (Karela / Vision)
- 0.80 / 1.20
- Defence rating (Karela / Vision)
- 1.08 / 1.04
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Karela vs Vision score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Karela goals. Columns: Vision goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Karela vs Vision goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 41%
- No goals (0–0)
- 15%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Karela vs Vision
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Karela | 41% | 2.46 |
| Draw | 33% | 3.03 | |
| Vision | 26% | 3.80 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 33% | 3.08 |
| Under 2.5 | 67% | 1.48 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 41% | 2.45 |
| No | 59% | 1.69 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Karela or draw) | 74% | 1.36 |
| 12 (either side) | 67% | 1.49 | |
| X2 (draw or Vision) | 59% | 1.68 | |
| Handicap -1 | Karela win by 2+ | 18% | 5.65 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Karela and Vision recent form
Karela
2W 1D 3L
Vision
1W 3D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Karela at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-1
- Win rate
- 75%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 0.75
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.4 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
Vision away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-2
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.75
- Goals against / match
- 2.25
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game on the road against 0.8 at home.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Karela at home only, Vision away only.
Karela vs Vision head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Karela 1 · draws 1 · Vision 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-10 | Vision | 3-0 | Karela | Ghana Premier League |
| 2025-12-21 | Karela | 1-0 | Vision | Ghana Premier League |
| 2025-05-25 | Vision | 1-0 | Karela | Premier League |
| 2024-12-29 | Karela | 1-1 | Vision | Premier League |
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- Dreams v Debibi United — match page 2026-11-08
- Ashanti Gold vs Young Apostles — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- Bechem United vs Samartex 2026-11-08
- Berekum Chelsea v Asante Kotoko — match page 2026-11-08
- Hearts of Oak vs Heart of Lions — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- Medeama v Swedru All Blacks — match page 2026-11-08
- Bibiani Gold Stars vs Aduana Stars — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- Port City vs Basake Holy Stars 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Karela, previous: Young Apostles v Karela analysis
- Vision, previous: Vision – Port City, 2026-10-31