Hearts of Oak vs Heart of Lions preview
In the Ghana Premier League fixture between Hearts of Oak and Heart of Lions, the 1X2 probabilities show Hearts of Oak at 67%, while Heart of Lions sits at 8%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-0, with a 19% chance. Hearts of Oak has an expected goals figure of 1.69, compared to Heart of Lions at just 0.45.
However, recent form could influence the outcome. Hearts of Oak has recorded 2 wins in their last 6 matches, while Heart of Lions has won 4 out of their last 6. Additionally, both teams to score sits at 30%, and there's a 36% chance for Over 2.5 goals, indicating the potential for a more dynamic game than the predicted scoreline suggests.
Hearts of Oak vs Heart of Lions: model vs market
| Source | Hearts of Oak | Draw | Heart of Lions |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 67% | 24% | 8% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 67% | 24% | 8% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.69 vs 0.45.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Hearts of Oak and Heart of Lions expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.14
- Attack rating (Hearts of Oak / Heart of Lions)
- 0.89 / 1.18
- Defence rating (Hearts of Oak / Heart of Lions)
- 0.57 / 1.38
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Hearts of Oak vs Heart of Lions score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Hearts of Oak goals. Columns: Heart of Lions goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Hearts of Oak vs Heart of Lions goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 30%
- No goals (0–0)
- 13%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Hearts of Oak vs Heart of Lions
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Hearts of Oak | 67% | 1.49 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.11 | |
| Heart of Lions | 8% | 11.91 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 36% | 2.78 |
| Under 2.5 | 64% | 1.56 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 30% | 3.30 |
| No | 70% | 1.43 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Hearts of Oak or draw) | 92% | 1.09 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.32 | |
| X2 (draw or Heart of Lions) | 33% | 3.05 | |
| Handicap -1 | Hearts of Oak win by 2+ | 40% | 2.52 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 28% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Hearts of Oak and Heart of Lions recent form
Hearts of Oak
3W 1D 2L
Heart of Lions
3W 0D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Hearts of Oak at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-0
- Win rate
- 75%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 0.00
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 4
- They have won 5 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
Heart of Lions away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-3
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.25
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game on the road against 0.8 at home.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Hearts of Oak at home only, Heart of Lions away only.
Hearts of Oak vs Heart of Lions head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Hearts of Oak 0 · draws 2 · Heart of Lions 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-20 | Heart of Lions | 0-0 | Hearts of Oak | Ghana Premier League |
| 2025-10-13 | Hearts of Oak | 0-0 | Heart of Lions | Ghana Premier League |
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
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- Dreams v Debibi United — match page 2026-11-08
- Ashanti Gold vs Young Apostles — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- Bechem United vs Samartex 2026-11-08
- Berekum Chelsea v Asante Kotoko — match page 2026-11-08
- Medeama v Swedru All Blacks — match page 2026-11-08
- Bibiani Gold Stars vs Aduana Stars — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- Port City vs Basake Holy Stars 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Hearts of Oak, previous: Debibi United v Hearts of Oak analysis
- Heart of Lions, previous: Heart of Lions vs Bechem United prediction