Karela vs Port City Prediction & Betting Tips 24/10/2026

Karela vs Port City preview

Karela faces Port City with a 44% chance of winning compared to Port City's 23%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which occurs 16% of the time according to our model. Karela has an expected goals figure of 1.17, while Port City stands at 0.77.

However, the match could deviate from this prediction if both teams score, which has a 38% likelihood. Additionally, the chance of Over 2.5 goals is only 31%. Karela's recent form shows inconsistency with three wins and three losses in their last six matches, while Port City has two wins, one draw, and three losses. This variability in performance could influence the outcome.

Karela vs Port City: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Karela	Draw	Port City
Model	44%	33%	23%
Market	—	—	—
Published	44%	33%	23%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.17 vs 0.77.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Karela and Port City expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.17Karela

0.77Port City

Total expected goals: 1.94
Attack rating (Karela / Port City): 0.93 / 1.14
Defence rating (Karela / Port City): 1.01 / 0.90

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Karela vs Port City score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 15.7% 9.8% 4.2% 1.1% 0.2% 1 15.6% 14.2% 5.0% 1.3% 0.3% 2 9.9% 7.6% 2.9% 0.7% 0.2% 3 3.8% 3.0% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 4+ 1.5% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%

Rows: Karela goals. Columns: Port City goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Karela vs Port City goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 84%

Over 1.5 59%

Over 2.5 31%

Over 3.5 13%

Both teams to score: 38%
No goals (0–0): 16%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Karela vs Port City

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Karela	44%	2.27
	Draw	33%	3.02
	Port City	23%	4.38
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	31%	3.26
	Under 2.5	69%	1.44
Both teams to score	Yes	38%	2.62
	No	62%	1.62
Double chance	1X (Karela or draw)	77%	1.30
	12 (either side)	67%	1.50
	X2 (draw or Port City)	56%	1.79
Handicap -1	Karela win by 2+	20%	5.08
	Push (exactly one goal)	24%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

Where to bet on this match in Kenya

Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit

All betting sites

#	Welcome offer	Why it is here	Visit
1	50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply.	M-PESA Paybill 290059 Daily Jackpot Live betting	Get offer
2	First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply.	1,000+ events every day Live betting around the clock 30+ markets on live events	Get offer
3	100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply.	M-Pesa and Airtel Money deposits Live in-play betting Android and iOS app	Get offer
4	200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply.	1,000+ events every day 30+ markets on live events 24/7 customer support	Get offer