Hearts of Oak vs Basake Holy Stars preview
Hearts of Oak face Basake Holy Stars with a 71% chance of winning, while Basake Holy Stars sit at just 6%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 23% probability. Hearts of Oak's expected goals stand at 1.64, significantly higher than Basake Holy Stars' 0.30.
However, the prediction could be challenged if Basake Holy Stars improve their recent form, which shows 1 win in their last 6 matches. Additionally, both teams to score has a low probability of 21%, indicating that a defensive performance from Basake Holy Stars could lead to a different outcome.
Hearts of Oak vs Basake Holy Stars: model vs market
| Source | Hearts of Oak | Draw | Basake Holy Stars |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 71% | 24% | 6% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 71% | 24% | 6% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.64 vs 0.30.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Hearts of Oak and Basake Holy Stars expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 1.94
- Attack rating (Hearts of Oak / Basake Holy Stars)
- 0.98 / 0.74
- Defence rating (Hearts of Oak / Basake Holy Stars)
- 0.60 / 1.20
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Hearts of Oak vs Basake Holy Stars score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Hearts of Oak goals. Columns: Basake Holy Stars goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Hearts of Oak vs Basake Holy Stars goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 21%
- No goals (0–0)
- 15%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Hearts of Oak vs Basake Holy Stars
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Hearts of Oak | 71% | 1.41 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.21 | |
| Basake Holy Stars | 6% | 18.09 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 31% | 3.27 |
| Under 2.5 | 69% | 1.44 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 21% | 4.67 |
| No | 79% | 1.27 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Hearts of Oak or draw) | 94% | 1.06 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.31 | |
| X2 (draw or Basake Holy Stars) | 29% | 3.42 | |
| Handicap -1 | Hearts of Oak win by 2+ | 42% | 2.41 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 29% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Hearts of Oak and Basake Holy Stars recent form
Hearts of Oak
3W 2D 1L
Basake Holy Stars
3W 0D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Hearts of Oak at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-0
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 1.67
- Goals against / match
- 0.00
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 3
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 6 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 6 matches.
Basake Holy Stars away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-3
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.33
- Goals against / match
- 2.33
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They average 1.0 goals per game at home against 0.3 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Hearts of Oak at home only, Basake Holy Stars away only.
Hearts of Oak vs Basake Holy Stars head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Hearts of Oak 1 · draws 1 · Basake Holy Stars 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-08 | Hearts of Oak | 0-0 | Basake Holy Stars | Ghana Premier League |
| 2025-11-02 | Basake Holy Stars | 1-2 | Hearts of Oak | Ghana Premier League |
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
- Karela vs Port City 2026-10-24
Before and after this match
- Hearts of Oak, previous: Vision vs Hearts of Oak: odds and pick
- Basake Holy Stars, previous: Basake Holy Stars v Bechem United analysis