Medeama vs Aduana Stars preview
Medeama faces Aduana Stars with a 62% probability of winning according to our model. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which has a 14% chance of occurring. Medeama's expected goals stand at 1.79, while Aduana Stars has an expected goals figure of 0.71.
However, the recent form shows Medeama with a mixed record of L-W-W-W-W-D and Aduana Stars with W-L-W-W-W-L. This inconsistency could affect the outcome. Additionally, the chances for Over 2.5 goals are at 46% and both teams to score is at 43%, indicating potential for a low-scoring match.
Medeama vs Aduana Stars: model vs market
| Source | Medeama | Draw | Aduana Stars |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 62% | 25% | 13% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 62% | 25% | 13% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.79 vs 0.71.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Medeama and Aduana Stars expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.50
- Attack rating (Medeama / Aduana Stars)
- 1.60 / 0.92
- Defence rating (Medeama / Aduana Stars)
- 1.17 / 0.81
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Medeama vs Aduana Stars score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Medeama goals. Columns: Aduana Stars goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Medeama vs Aduana Stars goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 43%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Medeama vs Aduana Stars
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Medeama | 62% | 1.61 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.07 | |
| Aduana Stars | 13% | 7.55 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 46% | 2.19 |
| Under 2.5 | 54% | 1.84 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 43% | 2.31 |
| No | 57% | 1.77 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Medeama or draw) | 87% | 1.15 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or Aduana Stars) | 38% | 2.65 | |
| Handicap -1 | Medeama win by 2+ | 37% | 2.70 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Medeama and Aduana Stars recent form
Medeama
4W 1D 1L
Aduana Stars
4W 0D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Medeama at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 2.67
- Goals against / match
- 0.67
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They average 2.7 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
Aduana Stars away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-1
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 0.67
- Goals against / match
- 0.33
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 3
- They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Medeama at home only, Aduana Stars away only.
Medeama vs Aduana Stars head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Medeama 3 · draws 4 · Aduana Stars 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-14 | Medeama | 1-1 | Aduana Stars | Ghana Premier League |
| 2025-11-08 | Aduana Stars | 0-0 | Medeama | Ghana Premier League |
| 2025-03-23 | Medeama | 2-0 | Aduana Stars | Premier League |
| 2024-10-28 | Aduana Stars | 2-2 | Medeama | Premier League |
| 2024-03-21 | Medeama | 2-0 | Aduana Stars | Premier League |
| 2023-09-24 | Aduana Stars | 2-0 | Medeama | Premier League |
| 2023-03-12 | Aduana Stars | 1-0 | Medeama | Premier League |
| 2022-10-30 | Medeama | 0-1 | Aduana Stars | Premier League |
| 2022-05-02 | Aduana Stars | 1-1 | Medeama | Premier League |
| 2021-12-26 | Medeama | 1-0 | Aduana Stars | Premier League |
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
- Hearts of Oak vs Basake Holy Stars — team news & stats 2026-10-23
- Dreams v Vision — match page 2026-10-25
- Ashanti Gold vs Asante Kotoko — team news & stats 2026-10-25
- Bechem United vs Debibi United 2026-10-25
- Berekum Chelsea v Samartex — match page 2026-10-25
- Karela vs Port City 2026-10-25
- Bibiani Gold Stars vs Heart of Lions — team news & stats 2026-10-25
- Young Apostles vs Swedru All Blacks 2026-10-25
Before and after this match
- Medeama, previous: Samartex vs Medeama: odds and pick
- Aduana Stars, previous: Aduana Stars – Ashanti Gold, 2026-10-18