PAOK vs Iraklis 1908 Prediction & Betting Tips 18/10/2026

PAOK vs Iraklis 1908 preview

In the upcoming match between PAOK and Iraklis 1908, the 1X2 probabilities show PAOK at 69% to win, while Iraklis 1908 sits at 11%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-0, with a 14% chance. PAOK has an expected goals figure of 1.55, compared to Iraklis 1908's 0.79, indicating a strong attacking edge for the home side.

However, the confidence grade for this match is C, suggesting uncertainty in the predictions. Both teams to score has a probability of 44%, and Over 2.5 goals stands at 41%. If Iraklis 1908 can improve their recent form, which includes only 1 win in their last 6 matches, they could challenge PAOK's dominance.

PAOK vs Iraklis 1908: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	PAOK	Draw	Iraklis 1908
Model	49%	29%	22%
Market	76%	16%	8%
Published	69%	19%	12%
Edge	-26%	+13%	+14%

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.49 vs 0.92.
Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.26, recorded 2026-10-14 — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.

PAOK vs Iraklis 1908 odds movement

Median bookmaker price on PAOK, 10 snapshots since 2026-10-10.

Opened 1.25Now 1.22 -0.03

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
PAOK	1.25	1.22	-0.03
Draw	5.17	5.75	+0.58
Iraklis 1908	11.43	11.00	-0.43

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

PAOK and Iraklis 1908 expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.49PAOK

0.92Iraklis 1908

Total expected goals: 2.41
Attack rating (PAOK / Iraklis 1908): 1.22 / 0.81
Defence rating (PAOK / Iraklis 1908): 1.03 / 0.84

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

PAOK vs Iraklis 1908 score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 10.2% 7.0% 3.8% 1.2% 0.3% 1 12.1% 13.6% 5.7% 1.8% 0.5% 2 9.9% 9.2% 4.2% 1.3% 0.4% 3 4.9% 4.6% 2.1% 0.6% 0.2% 4+ 2.6% 2.4% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1%

Rows: PAOK goals. Columns: Iraklis 1908 goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

PAOK vs Iraklis 1908 goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 90%

Over 1.5 71%

Over 2.5 43%

Over 3.5 22%

Both teams to score: 48%
No goals (0–0): 10%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for PAOK vs Iraklis 1908

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	PAOK	69%	1.45
	Draw	19%	5.21
	Iraklis 1908	12%	8.45
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	43%	2.31
	Under 2.5	57%	1.77
Both teams to score	Yes	48%	2.09
	No	52%	1.92
Double chance	1X (PAOK or draw)	88%	1.13
	12 (either side)	81%	1.24
	X2 (draw or Iraklis 1908)	31%	3.22
Handicap -1	PAOK win by 2+	26%	3.92
	Push (exactly one goal)	24%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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