Panathinaikos vs Asteras Tripolis preview
In the Super League 1 fixture between Panathinaikos and Asteras Tripolis, the 1X2 probabilities show Panathinaikos at 73%, while Asteras Tripolis sits at just 9%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-0, with a 13% chance. Panathinaikos has displayed strong recent form, winning 5 of their last 6 matches, while Asteras Tripolis has a mixed record with 3 wins and 3 draws.
The model suggests a 45% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance for both teams to score. If Asteras Tripolis can improve their attacking output, currently averaging 0.81 expected goals, they might challenge Panathinaikos more effectively. However, their overall performance against Panathinaikos in recent head-to-heads has been poor, with 0 wins in the last 2 encounters.
Panathinaikos vs Asteras Tripolis: model vs market
| Source | Panathinaikos | Draw | Asteras Tripolis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 56% | 27% | 17% |
| Market | 78% | 15% | 7% |
| Published | 73% | 18% | 9% |
| Edge | -22% | +11% | +11% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.65 vs 0.81.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.23, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
Panathinaikos vs Asteras Tripolis odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Panathinaikos, 48 snapshots since 2026-09-21.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Panathinaikos | 1.25 | 1.19 | -0.06 |
| Draw | 5.25 | 6.00 | +0.75 |
| Asteras Tripolis | 11.00 | 14.10 | +3.10 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Panathinaikos and Asteras Tripolis expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.47
- Attack rating (Panathinaikos / Asteras Tripolis)
- 1.29 / 1.12
- Defence rating (Panathinaikos / Asteras Tripolis)
- 0.65 / 0.89
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Panathinaikos vs Asteras Tripolis score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Panathinaikos goals. Columns: Asteras Tripolis goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Panathinaikos vs Asteras Tripolis goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 46%
- No goals (0–0)
- 10%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Panathinaikos vs Asteras Tripolis
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Panathinaikos | 73% | 1.38 |
| Draw | 18% | 5.48 | |
| Asteras Tripolis | 9% | 10.85 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 45% | 2.23 |
| Under 2.5 | 55% | 1.81 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 46% | 2.17 |
| No | 54% | 1.86 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Panathinaikos or draw) | 91% | 1.10 |
| 12 (either side) | 82% | 1.22 | |
| X2 (draw or Asteras Tripolis) | 27% | 3.64 | |
| Handicap -1 | Panathinaikos win by 2+ | 32% | 3.17 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Panathinaikos and Asteras Tripolis recent form
Panathinaikos
5W 0D 1L
Asteras Tripolis
3W 3D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Panathinaikos at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 3.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.67
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 5 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 5 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
Asteras Tripolis away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-1
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.67
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 0 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
League matches this season before kick-off: Panathinaikos at home only, Asteras Tripolis away only.
Panathinaikos vs Asteras Tripolis head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Panathinaikos 2 · draws 0 · Asteras Tripolis 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-22 | Asteras Tripolis | 1-2 | Panathinaikos | Super League 1 |
| 2025-10-26 | Panathinaikos | 2-0 | Asteras Tripolis | Super League 1 |
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
- Levadiakos vs Volos NFC 2026-10-17
- Atromitos vs AEK Athens FC 2026-10-17
- Kalamata v OFI — match page 2026-10-18
- Panetolikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus — team news & stats 2026-10-18
- Kifisia vs Aris Thessalonikis — team news & stats 2026-10-18
- PAOK v Iraklis 1908 — match page 2026-10-18
Before and after this match
- Panathinaikos, previous: Panathinaikos v Borac Banja Luka analysis
- Panathinaikos, next: Kairat Almaty – Panathinaikos, 2026-10-22
- Asteras Tripolis, previous: Asteras Tripolis – Atromitos, 2026-10-10
- Asteras Tripolis, next: Asteras Tripolis – Kifisia, 2026-10-27