Kifisia vs Aris Thessalonikis preview
Kifisia faces Aris Thessalonikis with 34% chances of winning for Kifisia compared to 38% for Aris Thessalonikis. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, occurring at a rate of 7%. Kifisia's expected goals stand at 1.47, while Aris Thessalonikis has 1.23.
Both teams to score is at 56%, and Over 2.5 goals is at 50%. Kifisia's recent form shows 2 wins and 4 losses, while Aris Thessalonikis has 2 wins and 3 draws in their last 5 matches. The head-to-head record shows Kifisia has not won against Aris Thessalonikis in their last 2 meetings, with 1 draw and 1 loss.
Kifisia vs Aris Thessalonikis: model vs market
| Source | Kifisia | Draw | Aris Thessalonikis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 41% | 28% | 31% |
| Market | 31% | 29% | 40% |
| Published | 34% | 28% | 38% |
| Edge | +10% | 0% | -9% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.45, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
Kifisia vs Aris Thessalonikis odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Aris Thessalonikis, 48 snapshots since 2026-09-21.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kifisia | 2.90 | 2.97 | +0.07 |
| Draw | 3.08 | 3.26 | +0.18 |
| Aris Thessalonikis | 2.46 | 2.33 | -0.13 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Kifisia and Aris Thessalonikis expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.69
- Attack rating (Kifisia / Aris Thessalonikis)
- 1.03 / 1.15
- Defence rating (Kifisia / Aris Thessalonikis)
- 0.96 / 0.98
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Kifisia vs Aris Thessalonikis score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Kifisia goals. Columns: Aris Thessalonikis goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Kifisia vs Aris Thessalonikis goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 56%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Kifisia vs Aris Thessalonikis
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Kifisia | 34% | 2.95 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.51 | |
| Aris Thessalonikis | 38% | 2.66 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50% | 1.98 |
| Under 2.5 | 50% | 2.02 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56% | 1.80 |
| No | 44% | 2.25 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Kifisia or draw) | 62% | 1.60 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.40 | |
| X2 (draw or Aris Thessalonikis) | 66% | 1.51 | |
| Handicap -1 | Aris Thessalonikis win by 2+ | 13% | 7.47 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Kifisia and Aris Thessalonikis recent form
Kifisia
2W 1D 3L
Aris Thessalonikis
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Kifisia at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-0
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.33
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 3
- They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
Aris Thessalonikis away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-2
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 3.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 5 matches.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Kifisia at home only, Aris Thessalonikis away only.
Kifisia vs Aris Thessalonikis head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Kifisia 0 · draws 1 · Aris Thessalonikis 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-22 | Aris Thessalonikis | 1-1 | Kifisia | Super League 1 |
| 2025-09-20 | Kifisia | 0-1 | Aris Thessalonikis | Super League 1 |
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
- Levadiakos vs Volos NFC 2026-10-17
- Atromitos vs AEK Athens FC 2026-10-17
- Kalamata v OFI — match page 2026-10-18
- Panetolikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus — team news & stats 2026-10-18
- Panathinaikos vs Asteras Tripolis 2026-10-18
- PAOK v Iraklis 1908 — match page 2026-10-18
Before and after this match
- Kifisia, previous: Kifisia vs Panetolikos: odds and pick
- Kifisia, next: Asteras Tripolis – Kifisia, 2026-10-27
- Aris Thessalonikis, previous: Aris Thessalonikis v Volos NFC analysis
- Aris Thessalonikis, next: Panathinaikos v Aris Thessalonikis analysis